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Lagarto vs Guarany SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano
Lagarto Logo

Lagarto

2 - 0
FT
Guarany SE Logo

Guarany SE

Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Jefferson Baiano
Penalty Missed
20' Event
Bruninho
36' Event
Soares
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano game between Lagarto and Guarany SE finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lagarto.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Lagarto
20%
Draws
40%
Guarany SE
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Lagarto carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Lagarto a 40% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 16.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Lagarto Clean Sheet 20%
Guarany SE Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagarto Guarany SE
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 10 7
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.33 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.15 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 1.02
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 5, 2026 Copa Governo (Sergipe)
Lagarto vs Guarany SE
2:0
Jan 21, 2026 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Guarany SE
2:0
Jan 18, 2025 Sergipano
Lagarto vs Guarany SE
4:0
Feb 23, 2019 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Lagarto
2:2
Apr 2, 2016 Sergipano
Guarany SE vs Lagarto
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagarto Compare

Top Goalscorer Bruninho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Soares
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7

Guarany SE Compare

Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.57

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagarto 58 / 100
Guarany SE 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagarto Guarany SE

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagarto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guarany SE let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Lagarto found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (33 games).

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Away concern: Guarany SE has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lagarto VS Guarany SE
1 Goals Scored 0.8
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.8
75% Over 1.5 80%
50% Over 2.5 40%
13% Over 3.5 20%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagarto

(Home)
19 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
13 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 0
Lagarto
10 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
2 : 0
Lagarto
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Lagarto
1 : 2
Falcon
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Guarany SE

(Away)
13 Aug
Guarany SE
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
08 Aug
America de Propria
2 : 3
Guarany SE
05 Aug
Lagarto
2 : 0
Guarany SE
01 Aug
Guarany SE
1 : 1
Atletico Gloriense
29 Jul
Falcon
3 : 0
Guarany SE
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)