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Lago Verde vs Araioses

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense 2
Lago Verde Logo

Lago Verde

1 - 2
FT
Araioses Logo

Araioses

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. This leg finished 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Lago Verde
30%
Draws
37%
Araioses
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Araioses

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Lago Verde have won more games recently than Araioses.
  • 33% — that's where the model lands on Lago Verde taking it.
  • Lago Verde have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Araioses, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Lago Verde Clean Sheet 20%
Araioses Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lago Verde Araioses
Matches Played 17 10
Wins 11 7
Draws 3 3
Losses 3 0
Goals Scored 2.47 1.3
Goals Conceded 1 0.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Maranhense 2
Lago Verde vs Araioses
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lago Verde 67 / 100
Araioses 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lago Verde Araioses

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lago Verde Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lago Verde scored in 94% of their last 17 games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Lago Verde went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Araioses has conceded goals in 30% of their last 10 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lago Verde VS Araioses
2.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.13
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lago Verde

(Home)
25 Jul
Lago Verde
1 : 2
Araioses
22 Jul
Lago Verde
2 : 2
Pinheiro
18 Jul
Pinheiro
0 : 2
Lago Verde
15 Jul
Lago Verde
5 : 2
Expressinho
11 Jul
Expressinho
0 : 1
Lago Verde
Page 1 of 4

Araioses

(Away)
25 Jul
Lago Verde
1 : 2
Araioses
22 Jul
Timon EC (MA)
1 : 1
Araioses
18 Jul
Araioses
1 : 0
Timon EC (MA)
15 Jul
Araioses
2 : 0
Cordino EC
11 Jul
Cordino EC
1 : 1
Araioses
Page 1 of 2

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Pinheiro 2
Sao Luis 1
Expressinho 2
Lago Verde 6
Cordino EC 1
Araioses 3
Tupan 1
Timon EC (MA) 6
Semi-finals
Pinheiro 2
Lago Verde 4
Araioses 2
Timon EC (MA) 1
Final
Lago Verde 1
Araioses 2