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Stadium Background

Lago Verde vs Tupan

Brazil Brazil

Maranhense 2 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lago Verde in this Maranhense 2 2025 tie, finishing 3-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Lago Verde
30%
Draws
23%
Tupan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lago Verde

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Lago Verde have won more games recently than Tupan.
  • Win probability leans Lago Verde's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Lago Verde have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Lago Verde, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Lago Verde Clean Sheet 20%
Tupan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lago Verde Tupan
Matches Played 17 19
Wins 11 2
Draws 3 5
Losses 3 12
Goals Scored 2.47 0.74
Goals Conceded 1 2.11
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2025 Maranhense 2
Lago Verde vs Tupan
3:1
Oct 8, 2025 Maranhense 2
Tupan vs Lago Verde
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lago Verde 85 / 100
Tupan 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lago Verde Tupan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lago Verde Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lago Verde scored in 94% of their last 17 outings.

Tupan let in goals in 84% of their last 19 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Recent resilience: Lago Verde stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lago Verde VS Tupan
2.63 Goals Scored 0.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lago Verde

(Home)
25 Jul
Lago Verde
1 : 2
Araioses
22 Jul
Lago Verde
2 : 2
Pinheiro
18 Jul
Pinheiro
0 : 2
Lago Verde
15 Jul
Lago Verde
5 : 2
Expressinho
11 Jul
Expressinho
0 : 1
Lago Verde
Page 1 of 4

Tupan

(Away)
15 Jul
Timon EC (MA)
5 : 1
Tupan
11 Jul
Tupan
0 : 1
Timon EC (MA)
01 Jul
Tupan
0 : 0
Araioses
24 Jun
Americano Bacabal
2 : 2
Tupan
20 Jun
Tupan
1 : 0
Expressinho
Page 1 of 4

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Cordino EC 2
Sao Luis 3
Timon EC (MA) 0
Luminense 1
Americano Bacabal 1
ITZ Sport 4
Tupan 1
Lago Verde 6
Semi-finals
Sao Luis 1
Luminense 2
ITZ Sport 3
Lago Verde 2
Final
Luminense 1
ITZ Sport 0