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Lagoa vs Malveira

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Lagoa Logo

Lagoa

0 - 0
FT
Malveira Logo

Malveira

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Lagoa
35%
Draws
19%
Malveira
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lagoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Malveira lately — more wins on the board than Lagoa.
  • Win probability leans Lagoa's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 68%
Malveira Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagoa Malveira
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 6 10
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.43 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.29 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.43 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.29 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs Malveira
0:0
Nov 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Malveira vs Lagoa
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagoa 95 / 100
Malveira 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagoa Malveira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LAG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagoa's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Malveira has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Lagoa remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Lagoa VS Malveira
1.43 Goals Scored 1.63
1.29 Goals Conceded 1
86% Over 1.5 63%
71% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagoa

(Home)
18 Apr
Lagoa
1 : 2
GD Alcochetense
12 Apr
Portimonense B
1 : 3
Lagoa
04 Apr
Oriental
0 : 2
Lagoa
22 Mar
Lagoa
0 : 0
Malveira
15 Mar
Alverca B
2 : 1
Lagoa
Page 1 of 6

Malveira

(Away)
31 May
Oliveira Hospital
1 : 1
Malveira
23 May
Malveira
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
17 May
Louletano
1 : 1
Malveira
10 May
Malveira
0 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
03 May
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0
Malveira
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)