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Lagoa vs Moura AC

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025
Lagoa Logo

Lagoa

0 - 1
FT
Moura AC Logo

Moura AC

Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Marques D.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025 game between Lagoa and Moura AC finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Moura AC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lagoa
30%
Draws
31%
Moura AC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lagoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Lagoa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 22%
Moura AC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagoa Moura AC
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 12 9
Draws 8 5
Losses 12 16
Goals Scored 1.5 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs Moura AC
0:1
Dec 15, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Moura AC vs Lagoa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagoa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Moura AC Compare

Top Goalscorer Marques D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagoa 37 / 100
Moura AC 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagoa Moura AC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Moura AC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Moura AC let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Lagoa scored in 78% of their last 32 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Lagoa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lagoa VS -
1.75 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagoa

(Home)
19 Sept
Atletico CP
4 : 1
Lagoa
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Santa Clara B
1 : 2
Lagoa
23 Aug
Imortal
1 : 0
Lagoa
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
Page 1 of 7

Moura AC

(Away)
13 Apr
Moura AC
1 : 2
Amora
06 Apr
Lagoa
0 : 1
Moura AC
29 Mar
Moura AC
1 : 1
Estrela da Amadora B
16 Mar
Moura AC
1 : 2
Sintrense
09 Mar
Moura AC
0 : 1
Louletano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lusitano GC 26 18 4 4 57:14 58
2 Amora 26 17 6 3 41:19 57
3 Sintrense 26 16 4 6 39:26 52
4 Moncarapachense 26 15 6 5 39:19 51
5 Louletano 26 15 5 6 44:20 50
6 Serpa 26 13 6 7 42:27 45
7 Estrela da Amadora B 26 7 9 10 35:31 30
8 Lagoa 26 7 9 10 26:35 30
9 Industria 26 8 5 13 35:42 29
10 Fabril do Barreiro 26 6 9 11 21:32 27
11 Moura AC 26 7 5 14 27:50 26
12 Operario 26 6 5 15 22:43 23
13 FC Barreirense 26 5 7 14 31:47 22
14 Estrela Vendas Novas 26 1 2 23 12:66 5
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)