Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lagun Onak vs Anorga

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

90' Event
Galarza J.

AI Match Summary

Lagun Onak in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lagun Onak.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Lagun Onak
30%
Draws
33%
Anorga
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lagun Onak

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lagun Onak lately — more wins on the board than Anorga.
  • Model gives Lagun Onak a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 17%
Anorga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagun Onak Anorga
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 11
Draws 6 3
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 1.55 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Lagun Onak
2:2
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Anorga
1:0
Mar 15, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Lagun Onak
1:1
Oct 28, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs Anorga
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagun Onak Compare

Top Goalscorer Galarza J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Anorga Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagun Onak 48 / 100
Anorga 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagun Onak Anorga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagun Onak Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lagun Onak scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Anorga let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Lagun Onak went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lagun Onak VS Anorga
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagun Onak

(Home)
24 May
Derio
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
17 May
Lagun Onak
2 : 0
Derio
09 May
Leioa
2 : 3
Lagun Onak
03 May
Lagun Onak
1 : 1
Eibar C
26 Apr
Anorga
2 : 2
Lagun Onak
Page 1 of 6

Anorga

(Away)
09 May
Anorga
1 : 2
Real Sociedad C
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
26 Apr
Anorga
2 : 2
Lagun Onak
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
Anorga
4 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)