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Lagun Onak vs SCD Durango Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Vazquez Clemente E.

AI Match Summary

SCD Durango in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored SCD Durango.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Lagun Onak
35%
Draws
32%
SCD Durango
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lagun Onak lately — more wins on the board than SCD Durango.
  • Win probability leans Lagun Onak's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Lagun Onak Clean Sheet 14%
SCD Durango Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagun Onak SCD Durango
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 14 10
Draws 9 8
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.26 1.34
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs SCD Durango
0:1
Dec 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Lagun Onak
1:0
Feb 15, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Lagun Onak vs SCD Durango
1:1
Oct 5, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Lagun Onak
1:2
Feb 17, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Lagun Onak
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagun Onak Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

SCD Durango Compare

Top Goalscorer Vazquez Clemente E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagun Onak 41 / 100
SCD Durango 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagun Onak SCD Durango

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagun Onak's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Defensive concern: SCD Durango conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Lagun Onak stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lagun Onak VS SCD Durango
1.38 Goals Scored 1.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagun Onak

(Home)
27 Sept
Santurtzi
0 : 1
Lagun Onak
19 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 0
San Ignacio
12 Sept
Real Sociedad C
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
05 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 1
Leioa
29 Aug
Lagun Onak
2 : 2
Beasain
Page 1 of 7

SCD Durango

(Away)
26 Sept
Beasain
1 : 2
SCD Durango
19 Sept
SCD Durango
0 : 0
UD Aretxabaleta
13 Sept
Santurtzi
2 : 1
SCD Durango
05 Sept
SCD Durango
3 : 3
San Ignacio
19 Aug
SCD Durango
4 : 1
Pasaia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)