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Lagunak vs Oberena

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Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2023/2024
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Match Events

87' Event
Berruete I.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2023/2024 game between Lagunak and Oberena finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lagunak.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Lagunak
35%
Draws
25%
Oberena
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lagunak

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lagunak come out ahead of Oberena on wins alone.
  • Model gives Lagunak a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Lagunak Clean Sheet 68%
Oberena Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lagunak Oberena
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 6
Draws 9 10
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 1.03 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.78
Expected Goals (xG) 1.67 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Lagunak vs Oberena
1:0
Jan 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Oberena vs Lagunak
2:4
Feb 18, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Oberena vs Lagunak
4:2
Oct 21, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Lagunak vs Oberena
3:0
Feb 23, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 15
Lagunak vs Oberena
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lagunak Compare

Top Goalscorer Berruete I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.28
Avg xA / game 0.83

Oberena Compare

Avg xG / game 1.13
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lagunak 68 / 100
Oberena 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lagunak Oberena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lagunak Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Oberena conceded in 81% of 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Lagunak scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Lagunak stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Oberena
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 2.13
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lagunak

(Home)
11 May
Lagunak
2 : 0
Huarte
04 May
Subiza
3 : 1
Lagunak
01 May
Lagunak
1 : 0
Oberena
27 Apr
Pamplona
1 : 1
Lagunak
21 Apr
Lagunak
0 : 0
Burlades
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Oberena

(Away)
09 May
Bidezarra
3 : 1
Oberena
03 May
Oberena
2 : 1
Txantrea
25 Apr
Pamplona
2 : 1
Oberena
19 Apr
Oberena
0 : 0
Cirbonero
10 Apr
CA Artajones
1 : 1
Oberena
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Subiza 34 20 8 6 68:29 68
2 Cortes 34 17 12 5 40:23 63
3 CD Ardoi 34 18 8 8 49:23 62
4 Pena 34 14 15 5 53:39 57
5 Huarte 34 16 6 12 51:47 54
6 CD Cantolagua 34 15 9 10 55:45 54
7 CD Beti Onak 34 15 5 14 47:50 50
8 Cirbonero 34 12 8 14 46:49 44
9 Txantrea 34 11 9 14 34:36 42
10 Pamplona 34 10 12 12 45:45 42
11 Beti Kozkor 34 11 9 14 35:43 42
12 Bidezarra 34 9 15 10 42:38 42
13 Burlades 34 11 8 15 35:47 41
14 Oberena 34 11 7 16 43:49 40
15 Ezcabarte 34 10 10 14 42:51 40
16 Lagunak 34 8 10 16 35:52 34
17 Lerines 34 9 7 18 34:59 34
18 Alesves 34 7 6 21 34:63 27
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 15 2023/2024 (Play Offs)