Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lahti vs Mariehamn

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Lahden Stadion, Lahti
Lahti Logo

Lahti

2 - 1
FT
Mariehamn Logo

Mariehamn

Our Tip

Match Events

38' Event
Lindholm A.
Assist: Montiel C.
60'
Sub
Heyden J. In: Andersson L.
Out: Heyden J.
61'
Sub
Bergvik A. In: Hyvonen M.
Out: Bergvik A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lahti in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lahti.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Lahti
15%
Draws
40%
Mariehamn
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lahti

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lahti lately — more wins on the board than Mariehamn.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Veikkausliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Lahti Clean Sheet 20%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lahti Mariehamn
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 14 8
Draws 6 5
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 1.43 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Lahti vs Mariehamn
2:1
Jul 20, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Lahti
0:2
May 26, 2026 Suomen Cup
Mariehamn vs Lahti
0:1
May 10, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Lahti vs Mariehamn
1:1
Mar 5, 2026 Liiga Cup
Mariehamn vs Lahti
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lahti Compare

Top Goalscorer Lindholm A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ojanen J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Mariehamn Compare

Top Goalscorer Stroud A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lahti 36 / 100
Mariehamn 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lahti Mariehamn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mariehamn Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lahti's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Mariehamn has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Lahti stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lahti VS Mariehamn
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 100%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lahti

(Home)
18 Sept
Lahti
1 : 1
Jaro
12 Sept
Ilves
3 : 1
Lahti
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
VPS
0 : 1
Lahti
21 Aug
SJK
1 : 2
Lahti
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Mariehamn

(Away)
18 Sept
SJK
2 : 1
Mariehamn
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
7 Lahti 25 10 6 9 30:24 36
8 Ilves 25 10 4 11 42:38 34
9 TPS 25 8 8 9 28:27 32
10 SJK 25 5 9 11 28:35 24
11 Mariehamn 25 4 5 16 20:47 17
12 Jaro 25 3 8 14 20:48 17
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Ykkosliiga 2027 (Main)