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Lamezia vs Igea Virtus Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Ordonez J.
56' Event
Ordonez J.
58' Event
Bruno Cosendey

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between Lamezia and Igea Virtus finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lamezia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Lamezia
30%
Draws
58%
Igea Virtus
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Igea Virtus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Igea Virtus come out ahead of Lamezia on wins alone.
  • Model gives Igea Virtus a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Lamezia Clean Sheet 11%
Igea Virtus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lamezia Igea Virtus
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 13
Draws 9 10
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.28 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Lamezia vs Igea Virtus
2:2
May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Lamezia vs Igea Virtus
4:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Igea Virtus vs Lamezia
1:1
Apr 19, 2009 Serie C2/C
Lamezia vs Igea Virtus
0:1
Nov 23, 2008 Serie C2/C
Igea Virtus vs Lamezia
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lamezia Compare

Top Goalscorer Ordonez J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bruno Cosendey
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Igea Virtus Compare

Top Goalscorer Mascari A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lamezia 18 / 100
Igea Virtus 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lamezia Igea Virtus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Igea Virtus Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lamezia scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Igea Virtus's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Lamezia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lamezia VS Igea Virtus
1.25 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Lamezia

(Home)
27 Sept
Sambiase
4 : 1
Lamezia
20 Sept
Lamezia
0 : 3
Reggina
16 Sept
USD Ragusa
1 : 1
Lamezia
12 Sept
Lamezia
2 : 2
Igea Virtus
06 Sept
Nissa
3 : 1
Lamezia
Page 1 of 6

Igea Virtus

(Away)
27 Sept
Reggina
2 : 0
Igea Virtus
20 Sept
Trapani
1 : 3
Igea Virtus
16 Sept
Igea Virtus
4 : 3
Vibonese
12 Sept
Lamezia
2 : 2
Igea Virtus
06 Sept
Igea Virtus
4 : 2
Calcio Avola
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)