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Lancaster vs Curzon Ashton

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

74' Event
Holmes B.
90' Event
Curran A.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Lancaster and Curzon Ashton finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Curzon Ashton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Lancaster
15%
Draws
64%
Curzon Ashton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Curzon Ashton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Lancaster carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Curzon Ashton's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Curzon Ashton here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Lancaster Clean Sheet 13%
Curzon Ashton Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lancaster Curzon Ashton
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.38 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Curzon Ashton
0:2
Oct 1, 2013 FA Cup
Lancaster vs Curzon Ashton
1:2
Sep 28, 2013 FA Cup
Curzon Ashton vs Lancaster
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lancaster Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Curzon Ashton Compare

Top Goalscorer Holmes B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Curran A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lancaster 10 / 100
Curzon Ashton 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lancaster Curzon Ashton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Curzon Ashton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lancaster's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Curzon Ashton has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.67 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Lancaster stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lancaster VS Curzon Ashton
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lancaster

(Home)
19 Sept
Bradford PA
1 : 0
Lancaster
12 Sept
Lancaster
0 : 2
Curzon Ashton
08 Sept
Tadcaster Albion
0 : 2
Lancaster
05 Sept
Lancaster
1 : 1
Tadcaster Albion
31 Aug
Lancaster
0 : 3
Workington
Page 1 of 6

Curzon Ashton

(Away)
12 Sept
Lancaster
0 : 2
Curzon Ashton
05 Sept
Curzon Ashton
1 : 2
Bradford PA
31 Aug
Curzon Ashton
2 : 0
Ashton United
28 Aug
Cleethorpes
1 : 3
Curzon Ashton
25 Aug
Warrington Town
0 : 4
Curzon Ashton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 10 7 2 1 25:6 23
2 Avro 9 7 1 1 28:16 22
3 Redcar Athletic 10 6 4 0 19:7 22
4 Guiseley 9 6 1 2 22:10 19
5 Warrington Town 9 5 2 2 18:14 17
6 Bury FC 9 5 1 3 19:8 16
7 Curzon Ashton 9 5 1 3 18:10 16
8 Workington 9 5 1 3 17:15 16
9 Gainsborough 9 4 1 4 14:12 13
10 Warrington Rylands 9 4 1 4 12:13 13
11 Alfreton 9 4 0 5 15:10 12
12 Whitby 9 4 0 5 14:24 12
13 Ashton United 9 3 2 4 10:9 11
14 Hyde 10 3 2 5 11:19 11
15 AFC Emley 9 2 4 3 8:15 10
16 Lancaster 9 3 1 5 9:17 10
17 Leek Town 10 2 3 5 19:20 9
18 Bamber Bridge 10 2 3 5 14:27 9
19 Stockton 10 2 2 6 13:20 8
20 Ilkeston 9 2 1 6 6:21 7
21 Quorn 9 1 3 5 12:23 6
22 United of Manchester 9 1 2 6 12:19 5
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