Sport Picks
Match Events
55'
55'
Bailey S.
57'
57'
Amison J.
90'
90'
Thompson D.
AI Match Summary
Lancaster in this NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lancaster.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gainsborough
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Lancaster lately — more wins on the board than Gainsborough.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Regular NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Lancaster Clean Sheet 19%
Gainsborough Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lancaster | Gainsborough |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 9 |
| Draws | 7 | 8 |
| Losses | 10 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.38 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 11, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Gainsborough
3:0
Aug 23, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Gainsborough vs Lancaster
0:0
Dec 14, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Gainsborough
1:2
Sep 7, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Gainsborough vs Lancaster
1:2
Apr 6, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Gainsborough
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lancaster Compare
Top Goalscorer Bailey S.
1 Goals Assists Leader Amison J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Gainsborough Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lancaster 32 / 100
Gainsborough 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lancaster Gainsborough
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Gainsborough Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lancaster scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
Gainsborough's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Lancaster has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Lancaster VS Gainsborough
0.63 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Lancaster
(Home) 19 Sept
Bradford PA
1 : 0 Lancaster
12 Sept
Lancaster
0 : 2 Curzon Ashton
08 Sept
Tadcaster Albion
0 : 2 Lancaster
05 Sept
Lancaster
1 : 1 Tadcaster Albion
31 Aug
Lancaster
0 : 3 Workington
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Lancaster
0 : 2 Curzon Ashton
05 Sept
Lancaster
1 : 1 Tadcaster Albion
31 Aug
Lancaster
0 : 3 Workington
22 Aug
Lancaster
2 : 2 Quorn
15 Aug
Lancaster
1 : 2 Hyde
Page 1 of 3
Gainsborough
(Away) 22 Sept
Gainsborough
3 : 0 Leamington
19 Sept
Leamington
1 : 1 Gainsborough
12 Sept
Gainsborough
0 : 2 Avro
05 Sept
Sherwood Colliery
2 : 4 Gainsborough
31 Aug
Gainsborough
0 : 3 Cleethorpes
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Leamington
1 : 1 Gainsborough
05 Sept
Sherwood Colliery
2 : 4 Gainsborough
28 Aug
Ashton United
1 : 2 Gainsborough
25 Aug
Quorn
2 : 2 Gainsborough
15 Aug
United of Manchester
0 : 3 Gainsborough
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hebburn Town | 40 | 23 | 10 | 7 | 75:41 | 79 |
| 2 | Hednesford | 40 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 62:35 | 77 |
| 3 | United of Manchester | 40 | 21 | 9 | 10 | 65:41 | 72 |
| 4 | Warrington Rylands | 40 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 59:42 | 67 |
| 5 | Stockton | 40 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 62:50 | 63 |
| 6 | Lancaster | 40 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 56:45 | 62 |
| 7 | Gainsborough | 40 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 50:45 | 59 |
| 8 | Leek Town | 40 | 17 | 7 | 16 | 50:52 | 58 |
| 9 | Cleethorpes | 40 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 56:47 | 55 |
| 10 | Ashton United | 40 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 47:54 | 53 |
| 11 | Ilkeston | 40 | 15 | 7 | 18 | 52:54 | 52 |
| 12 | Bamber Bridge | 40 | 14 | 8 | 18 | 52:52 | 50 |
| 13 | Guiseley | 40 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 46:56 | 48 |
| 14 | Warrington Town | 40 | 12 | 12 | 16 | 43:63 | 48 |
| 15 | Hyde | 40 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 58:63 | 47 |
| 16 | Rushall | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 48:61 | 47 |
| 17 | Whitby | 40 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 43:55 | 43 |
| 18 | Workington | 40 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 43:58 | 43 |
| 19 | Prescot Cables | 40 | 9 | 15 | 16 | 40:50 | 42 |
| 20 | Morpeth | 40 | 12 | 6 | 22 | 38:54 | 42 |
| 21 | Stocksbridge | 40 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 38:65 | 36 |
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
