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Lancaster vs Ilkeston - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Dwyer A.
60' Event
Bailey S.
(Penalty)
80' Event
Craig J.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Lancaster and Ilkeston finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lancaster.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Lancaster
15%
Draws
0%
Ilkeston
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lancaster

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Ilkeston haven't matched Lancaster's recent run of results.
  • 85% — that's where the model lands on Lancaster taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Lancaster Clean Sheet 19%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lancaster Ilkeston
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 8
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 1.54 0.96
Goals Conceded 1.57 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Ilkeston
2:1
Jan 17, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Lancaster
3:0
Sep 13, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Ilkeston
3:1
Mar 15, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Lancaster
4:0
Nov 9, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Ilkeston
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lancaster Compare

Top Goalscorer Craig J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Ilkeston Compare

Top Goalscorer Dwyer A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lancaster 85 / 100
Ilkeston 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lancaster Ilkeston

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lancaster Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lancaster's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Ilkeston conceded in 82% of 28 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.

Difficult form: Ilkeston registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lancaster VS Ilkeston
1.38 Goals Scored 0.5
2 Goals Conceded 2.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lancaster

(Home)
10 Oct
Warrington Town
2 : 2
Lancaster
07 Oct
Avro
5 : 3
Lancaster
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1
Ilkeston
29 Sept
Whitby
1 : 2
Lancaster
26 Sept
Cleethorpes
5 : 1
Lancaster
Page 1 of 6

Ilkeston

(Away)
10 Oct
Ilkeston
0 : 5
Redcar Athletic
06 Oct
Ilkeston
0 : 2
Guiseley
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1
Ilkeston
29 Sept
Ilkeston
0 : 1
Warrington Rylands
26 Sept
Ilkeston
1 : 3
Anstey Nomads
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 13 9 3 1 30:7 30
2 Redcar Athletic 13 8 4 1 28:11 28
3 Guiseley 12 8 1 3 25:11 25
4 Avro 11 8 1 2 33:20 25
5 Curzon Ashton 11 7 1 3 23:11 22
6 Workington 13 6 3 4 23:22 21
7 Warrington Rylands 13 6 2 5 20:20 20
8 Bury FC 11 6 1 4 22:11 19
9 Gainsborough 11 6 1 4 22:15 19
10 Warrington Town 11 5 4 2 22:18 19
11 Alfreton 13 6 0 7 20:16 18
12 Lancaster 13 5 2 6 18:26 17
13 Hyde 13 4 2 7 13:23 14
14 Ashton United 11 3 4 4 14:13 13
15 Quorn 12 3 4 5 21:27 13
16 Whitby 12 4 1 7 17:32 13
17 Stockton 13 3 3 7 17:24 12
18 Leek Town 12 2 5 5 24:25 11
19 AFC Emley 12 2 4 6 11:24 10
20 Bamber Bridge 12 2 4 6 16:31 10
21 Ilkeston 13 2 1 10 7:31 7
22 United of Manchester 11 1 3 7 14:22 6
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
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