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Lancaster vs Stockton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

NPL Premier Division
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lancaster host Stockton in the NPL Premier Division. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Lancaster have averaged 1.46 scored and 1.61 conceded recently, against Stockton's 1.14 scored and 1.75 conceded. Past meetings favor Stockton slightly — 1-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 18, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 1.63) point toward Lancaster. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lancaster
15%
Draws
46%
Stockton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Stockton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Stockton haven't matched Lancaster's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Stockton a 46% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Lancaster Clean Sheet 14%
Stockton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lancaster Stockton
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 7
Draws 6 6
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.46 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.61 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Stockton vs Lancaster
1:1
Nov 22, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Stockton
1:2
Jan 15, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Stockton vs Lancaster
1:0
Sep 10, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Lancaster vs Stockton
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lancaster 27 / 100
Stockton 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lancaster Stockton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Stockton Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lancaster's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Stockton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.25 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Lancaster stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lancaster VS Stockton
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lancaster

(Home)
07 Oct
Avro
5 : 3
Lancaster
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1
Ilkeston
29 Sept
Whitby
1 : 2
Lancaster
26 Sept
Cleethorpes
5 : 1
Lancaster
19 Sept
Bradford PA
1 : 0
Lancaster
Page 1 of 6

Stockton

(Away)
06 Oct
Stockton
1 : 0
Bury FC
03 Oct
Hyde
2 : 1
Stockton
26 Sept
Warrington Rylands
3 : 1
Stockton
19 Sept
Stockton
5 : 2
Bamber Bridge
12 Sept
Warrington Rylands
1 : 1
Stockton
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 12 8 3 1 27:7 27
2 Avro 10 8 1 1 33:19 25
3 Redcar Athletic 12 7 4 1 23:11 25
4 Guiseley 11 7 1 3 24:11 22
5 Workington 12 6 3 3 23:19 21
6 Warrington Rylands 12 6 2 4 20:17 20
7 Curzon Ashton 10 6 1 3 21:11 19
8 Alfreton 12 6 0 6 18:13 18
9 Warrington Town 10 5 3 2 20:16 18
10 Bury FC 10 5 1 4 19:9 16
11 Gainsborough 10 5 1 4 20:14 16
12 Lancaster 12 5 1 6 16:24 16
13 Hyde 12 4 2 6 13:21 14
14 Ashton United 10 3 3 4 12:11 12
15 Whitby 11 4 0 7 17:32 12
16 Stockton 12 3 2 7 15:22 11
17 Leek Town 11 2 4 5 22:23 10
18 Quorn 11 2 4 5 18:27 10
19 AFC Emley 11 2 4 5 10:22 10
20 Bamber Bridge 11 2 3 6 16:31 9
21 Ilkeston 12 2 1 9 7:26 7
22 United of Manchester 10 1 2 7 12:20 5
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