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Stadium Background

Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Argentina Argentina

Liga Profesional Estadio Ciudad de Lanús – Néstor Díaz Pérez, Lanús
Mon, Oct 12, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lanus host Velez Sarsfield in the Liga Profesional. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Lanus at 0.94 goals for, 1 against; Velez Sarsfield at 1.33 for, 0.87 against. Past meetings favor Lanus slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 21, 2026, ending 0:1. Model xG sits at 1.19 vs 1.00, favoring Velez Sarsfield. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lanus
30%
Draws
31%
Velez Sarsfield
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lanus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Velez Sarsfield have won more games recently than Lanus.
  • Lanus are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Lanus Clean Sheet 68%
Velez Sarsfield Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lanus Velez Sarsfield
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 12 13
Draws 8 13
Losses 13 4
Goals Scored 0.94 1.33
Goals Conceded 1 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Liga Profesional
Velez Sarsfield vs Lanus
0:1
Aug 31, 2025 Liga Profesional
Velez Sarsfield vs Lanus
3:0
May 22, 2025 Copa Argentina
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield
2:0
Feb 22, 2025 Liga Profesional
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield
0:0
Nov 20, 2024 Liga Profesional
Velez Sarsfield vs Lanus
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lanus 59 / 100
Velez Sarsfield 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lanus Velez Sarsfield

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lanus Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lanus scored in 61% of their last 33 games.

Velez Sarsfield let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Lanus remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Lanus VS Velez Sarsfield
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 13%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lanus

(Home)
03 Oct
Newells Old Boys
0 : 0
Lanus
22 Sept
Lanus
2 : 1
Estudiantes L.P.
14 Sept
Deportivo Riestra
0 : 3
Lanus
06 Sept
Lanus
1 : 0
Defensa y Justicia
29 Aug
Boca Juniors
1 : 0
Lanus
Page 1 of 7

Velez Sarsfield

(Away)
05 Oct
Velez Sarsfield
2 : 2
Platense
21 Sept
Velez Sarsfield
3 : 2
Tigre
11 Sept
Newells Old Boys
1 : 1
Velez Sarsfield
06 Sept
Velez Sarsfield
1 : 0
Estudiantes L.P.
03 Sept
Velez Sarsfield
0 : 1
Boca Juniors
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Instituto 11 8 1 2 17:8 25
2 Velez Sarsfield 11 5 6 0 17:11 21
3 Defensa y Justicia 11 6 3 2 16:11 21
4 Boca Juniors 11 5 5 1 17:11 20
5 Lanus 11 5 2 4 13:9 17
6 Newells Old Boys 11 4 5 2 11:8 17
7 Gimnasia Mendoza 11 5 2 4 14:12 17
8 Independiente 11 5 2 4 11:12 17
9 Estudiantes L.P. 11 4 1 6 13:11 13
10 Union de Santa Fe 11 4 1 6 17:19 13
11 Deportivo Riestra 11 2 5 4 9:11 11
12 San Lorenzo 11 3 2 6 4:11 11
13 Platense 11 2 4 5 11:17 10
14 Central Cordoba (Santiago del Estero) 11 2 3 6 8:14 9
15 Talleres Cordoba 11 2 2 7 11:18 8
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Argentinos Jrs 11 6 3 2 15:10 21
2 CA Belgrano de Cordoba 11 5 4 2 12:7 19
3 Rosario Central 11 5 4 2 12:9 19
4 Huracan 11 5 4 2 11:8 19
5 Ind. Rivadavia 11 5 3 3 15:14 18
6 Gimnasia L.P. 11 5 3 3 16:16 18
7 Sarmiento Junin 10 5 1 4 17:16 16
8 Barracas Central 11 4 3 4 8:9 15
9 River Plate 10 4 1 5 13:12 13
10 Atl. Tucuman 11 3 4 4 9:9 13
11 Tigre 11 3 3 5 10:11 12
12 Racing Club 11 3 2 6 13:17 11
13 Banfield 11 2 4 5 12:17 10
14 Aldosivi 11 2 2 7 12:17 8
15 Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 11 1 3 7 6:15 6
Promotion - Liga Profesional (Clausura - Play Offs)