Sport Picks
Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
USA
USL Championship Cashman Field, Las Vegas, NV 
Match Events
29'
29'
Anderson O.
34'
34'
Hurst G.
44'
44'
Archimede L.
AI Match Summary
New Mexico in this USL Championship matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored New Mexico.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Las Vegas Lights
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- New Mexico have won more games recently than Las Vegas Lights.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Las Vegas Lights taking it.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Las Vegas Lights Clean Sheet 16%
New Mexico Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Las Vegas Lights | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 16 |
| Draws | 5 | 8 |
| Losses | 13 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.24 | 1.67 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.41 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.44 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 6, 2026 USL Championship
Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico
1:2
May 10, 2026 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Las Vegas Lights
3:1
Aug 17, 2025 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Las Vegas Lights
2:2
Mar 16, 2025 USL Championship
Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico
2:3
Nov 10, 2024 USL Championship
New Mexico vs Las Vegas Lights
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Las Vegas Lights Compare
Top Goalscorer Anderson O.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
New Mexico Compare
Top Goalscorer Hurst G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Keller K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Las Vegas Lights 39 / 100
New Mexico 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Las Vegas Lights New Mexico
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Las Vegas Lights Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.40 goals.
Attacking prowess: Las Vegas Lights scored in 79% of their last 29 outings.
New Mexico has conceded goals in 63% of their last 30 outings.
Solid form: Las Vegas Lights remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Las Vegas Lights VS New Mexico
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Las Vegas Lights
(Home) 04 Oct
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 0 San Antonio FC
01 Oct
Sacramento Republic
3 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
20 Sept
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 1 Hartford Athletic
13 Sept
Orange County SC
0 : 2 Las Vegas Lights
06 Sept
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 2 New Mexico
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 0 San Antonio FC
20 Sept
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 1 Hartford Athletic
06 Sept
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 2 New Mexico
30 Aug
Las Vegas Lights
0 : 2 Charleston
16 Aug
Las Vegas Lights
2 : 1 Brooklyn FC
Page 1 of 4
New Mexico
(Away) 04 Oct
New Mexico
2 : 1 Phoenix Rising
01 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 New Mexico
27 Sept
New Mexico
2 : 3 Sacramento Republic
20 Sept
Colorado Springs
0 : 0 New Mexico
17 Sept
Birmingham Legion
4 : 4 New Mexico
Page 1 of 6
01 Oct
FC Tulsa
1 : 0 New Mexico
20 Sept
Colorado Springs
0 : 0 New Mexico
17 Sept
Birmingham Legion
4 : 4 New Mexico
06 Sept
Las Vegas Lights
1 : 2 New Mexico
22 Aug
Loudoun United
0 : 0 New Mexico
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46:25 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33:20 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52:31 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29:26 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39:29 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28:27 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43:42 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38:45 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33:33 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32:44 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36:43 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn FC | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27:55 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting Jax | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32:73 | 14 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46:35 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41:32 | 46 |
| 3 | Lexington | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 49:33 | 44 |
| 4 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37:25 | 44 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 28 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 32:25 | 43 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40:37 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36:42 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29:29 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35:38 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36:40 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29:47 | 21 |
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)
