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Latte Dolce vs Paganese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Pinna R.
23' Event
Basanisi A.
35' Event
Pierce M.

AI Match Summary

Paganese in this Serie D - Group G matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Paganese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Latte Dolce
30%
Draws
58%
Paganese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Paganese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Paganese lately — more wins on the board than Latte Dolce.
  • Paganese are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group G form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Latte Dolce Clean Sheet 10%
Paganese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Latte Dolce Paganese
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 14
Draws 6 5
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.54 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.71 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Latte Dolce vs Paganese
2:3
May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group G
Paganese vs Latte Dolce
1:1
Dec 21, 2024 Serie D - Group G
Latte Dolce vs Paganese
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Latte Dolce Compare

Top Goalscorer Pinna R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Paganese Compare

Top Goalscorer Basanisi A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pierce M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Latte Dolce 26 / 100
Paganese 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Latte Dolce Paganese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Paganese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Latte Dolce scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Paganese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 64% of 28 matches.

Latte Dolce went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Latte Dolce VS Paganese
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Latte Dolce

(Home)
27 Sept
Aranova
1 : 1
Latte Dolce
20 Sept
Latte Dolce
1 : 2
Citta di Anagni
16 Sept
Atl. Lodigiani
2 : 2
Latte Dolce
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3
Paganese
05 Sept
Ossese
3 : 0
Latte Dolce
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Paganese

(Away)
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
1 : 6
Paganese
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Latte Dolce
2 : 3
Paganese
06 Sept
Paganese
2 : 1
Unipomezia
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sarnese 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
2 Paganese 5 3 1 1 13:7 10
3 Monastir 5 3 1 1 12:8 10
4 Trastevere Calcio 5 3 1 1 8:10 10
5 Certosa V. Campagnano 5 3 0 2 8:3 9
6 Unipomezia 5 2 2 1 8:5 8
7 Albalonga 5 2 2 1 9:7 8
8 Ossese 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
9 Budoni Calcio 5 2 1 2 9:8 7
10 Anzio Calcio 1924 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
11 Gelbison 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
12 Afragolese 5 1 3 1 5:5 6
13 Aranova 5 1 3 1 5:5 6
14 Citta di Anagni 5 2 0 3 7:10 6
15 Sarrabus Ogliastra 5 1 2 2 5:7 5
16 Latte Dolce 5 0 2 3 6:11 2
17 Atl. Lodigiani 5 0 1 4 7:14 1
18 US Venafro 5 0 1 4 3:10 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)