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Latvia U17 W vs Lithuania U17 W

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Friendly International Women 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Friendly International Women 2024 encounter between Latvia U17 W and Lithuania U17 W promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Latvia U17 W averages 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded in recent matches. Lithuania U17 W shows a form average of 1.3 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Latvia U17 W, 1 wins for Lithuania U17 W, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 29.06.24 ended in a 2:2 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 2.06 for Latvia U17 W and 1.63 for Lithuania U17 W, suggesting the primary value lies in the Latvia U17 W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Latvia U17 W
18%
Draws
32%
Lithuania U17 W
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Latvia U17 W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Latvia U17 W picked up more points recently compared to Lithuania U17 W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.06 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 71%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Latvia U17 W Clean Sheet 14%
Lithuania U17 W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 85%
Second Half Goal 89%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Latvia U17 W Lithuania U17 W
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 2 3
Losses 16 19
Goals Scored 1.7 1.33
Goals Conceded 2.03 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 2.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

29.06.24 Friendly International Women
Latvia U17 W vs Lithuania U17 W
2:2
02.07.23 Friendly International Women
Latvia U17 W vs Lithuania U17 W
1:1
04.07.22 Friendly International Women
Lithuania U17 W vs Latvia U17 W
0:7
21.08.12 Friendly International Women
Latvia U17 W vs Lithuania U17 W
5:0
04.07.11 Friendly International Women
Lithuania U17 W vs Latvia U17 W
5:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Latvia U17 W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Lithuania U17 W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Latvia U17 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Tarasova A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Paegle L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lithuania U17 W Compare

Top Goalscorer Blazevicute J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Sapaite J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Latvia U17 W 48 / 100
Lithuania U17 W 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Latvia U17 W Lithuania U17 W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Latvia U17 W or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19%
2.38
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.3%
1.54
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Latvia U17 W 55%
Lithuania U17 W 26%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Latvia U17 W 48%
Lithuania U17 W 34%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Latvia U17 W 50%
Lithuania U17 W 32%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Latvia U17 W 53%
Lithuania U17 W 30%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Latvia U17 W 45%
Lithuania U17 W 35%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Latvia U17 W 57%
Lithuania U17 W 37%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Latvia U17 W attacking → ← attacking Lithuania U17 W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Latvia U17 W have found the net in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Lithuania U17 W have conceded at least one goal in 87% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 4.60 goals per match.

Latvia U17 W remained undefeated in 1 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Lithuania U17 W suffered defeat in 4 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Friendly match context where both Latvia U17 W and Lithuania U17 W will focus on tactical prep rather than league table pressure.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 27
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 1.25
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.88