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Latvia vs Gibraltar

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Skonto stadions
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AI Match Summary

Latvia play Gibraltar in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Latvia averaged 0.57 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Gibraltar averaged 0.61 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. In past meetings, Latvia won 4, Gibraltar won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 31, 2026 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Latvia and 0.88 for Gibraltar. This points to a Latvia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%
Latvia
15%
Draws
30%
Gibraltar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Latvia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

81% / High Confidence
  • Latvia picked up more points recently compared to Gibraltar.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 62%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29%
Latvia Clean Sheet 25%
Gibraltar Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 56%
Second Half Goal 59%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Latvia Gibraltar
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 6 4
Draws 7 5
Losses 17 19
Goals Scored 0.57 0.61
Goals Conceded 1.6 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 31, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Latvia vs Gibraltar
1:0
Mar 26, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Gibraltar vs Latvia
0:1
Nov 16, 2021 World Championship
Gibraltar vs Latvia
1:3
Sep 1, 2021 World Championship
Latvia vs Gibraltar
3:1
Mar 25, 2018 Friendly International
Gibraltar vs Latvia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Latvia Compare

Top Goalscorer Cernomordijs A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Gibraltar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Latvia 55 / 100
Gibraltar 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Latvia Gibraltar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Latvia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Latvia & Under 3.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +17.1%
2.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Latvia attacking → ← attacking Gibraltar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Latvia scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Gibraltar let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Latvia went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Gibraltar lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

25 Points in last 5 17
0.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.25
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25