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Latvia vs Lithuania Prediction & H2H Stats

Europe Europe

Baltic Cup 2024 Daugavas stadions, Liepāja
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Krollis R.
49' Event
Kucys A.
Assist: Golubickas P.
62'
Sub
Daskevics E. In: Kigurs M.
Out: Daskevics E.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-2, with Lithuania advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Latvia
20%
Draws
73%
Lithuania
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lithuania

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lithuania come out ahead of Latvia on wins alone.
  • Model gives Lithuania a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Lithuania arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Latvia, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Latvia Clean Sheet 20%
Lithuania Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Latvia Lithuania
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 5 7
Draws 8 5
Losses 16 15
Goals Scored 0.55 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Baltic Cup
Lithuania vs Latvia
2:1
Jun 8, 2024 Baltic Cup
Latvia vs Lithuania
0:2
Jun 4, 2021 Baltic Cup
Latvia vs Lithuania
3:1
Jun 5, 2018 Baltic Cup
Lithuania vs Latvia
1:1
Jun 1, 2016 Baltic Cup
Latvia vs Lithuania
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Latvia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Lithuania Compare

Top Goalscorer Kucys A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dolznikov A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Latvia 10 / 100
Lithuania 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Latvia Lithuania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lithuania Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lithuania's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 27 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Latvia found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (29 games).

Latvia went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Latvia VS Lithuania
0.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Latvia

(Home)
02 Oct
Latvia
1 : 2
Montenegro
28 Sept
Latvia
0 : 0
Cyprus
25 Sept
Armenia
2 : 0
Latvia
09 Jun
Latvia
0 : 1
Faroe Islands
06 Jun
Lithuania
2 : 1
Latvia
Page 1 of 6

Lithuania

(Away)
30 Sept
Lithuania
3 : 0
Andorra
27 Sept
Lithuania
1 : 1
Azerbaijan
24 Sept
Liechtenstein
0 : 2
Lithuania
09 Jun
Estonia
1 : 0
Lithuania
06 Jun
Lithuania
2 : 1
Latvia
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Lithuania 2
Latvia 0
Estonia 4
Faroe Islands 1
Final
Lithuania 1
Estonia 2
Latvia 1
Faroe Islands 0