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Lausanne Ouchy vs Aarau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Lausanne
Fri, Dec 11, 2026
VS
07:15 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lausanne Ouchy host Aarau in the Challenge League. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Lausanne Ouchy at 2.03 goals for, 1.06 against; Aarau at 1.74 for, 1.74 against. Past meetings favor Aarau slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 1, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (2.00 xG vs 0.88) point toward Lausanne Ouchy. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Lausanne Ouchy
15%
Draws
27%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lausanne Ouchy

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Lausanne Ouchy have won more games recently than Aarau.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Lausanne Ouchy taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Lausanne Ouchy Clean Sheet 20%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lausanne Ouchy Aarau
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 18 12
Draws 8 7
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 2.03 1.74
Goals Conceded 1.06 1.74
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy
1:1
Apr 22, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy
3:0
Feb 13, 2026 Challenge League
Lausanne Ouchy vs Aarau
4:2
Oct 17, 2025 Challenge League
Lausanne Ouchy vs Aarau
1:2
Aug 25, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lausanne Ouchy 85 / 100
Aarau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lausanne Ouchy Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lausanne Ouchy Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Aarau's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Lausanne Ouchy remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Lausanne Ouchy scored in 76% of their last 33 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lausanne Ouchy VS Aarau
2 Goals Scored 1.5
0.25 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lausanne Ouchy

(Home)
06 Nov
Stade Nyonnais
1 : 5
Lausanne Ouchy
30 Oct
Lausanne Ouchy
3 : 2
Yverdon
23 Oct
Lausanne Ouchy
0 : 0
Xamax
16 Oct
Lausanne Ouchy
3 : 0
Etoile-Carouge
09 Oct
Rapperswil-Jona
0 : 3
Lausanne Ouchy
Page 1 of 7

Aarau

(Away)
06 Nov
Aarau
0 : 3
Wil
30 Oct
Xamax
1 : 3
Aarau
24 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Etoile-Carouge
18 Oct
Aarau
2 : 0
Zurich
09 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 1
Aarau
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 13 9 4 0 28:6 31
2 Winterthur 12 7 3 2 26:11 24
3 Yverdon 12 6 4 2 23:14 22
4 Kriens 13 5 4 4 22:19 19
5 Xamax 12 5 1 6 16:20 16
6 Aarau 13 4 3 6 19:24 15
7 Wil 13 3 5 5 21:27 14
8 Etoile-Carouge 12 3 4 5 12:17 13
9 Rapperswil-Jona 13 3 2 8 18:26 11
10 Stade Nyonnais 13 2 2 9 13:34 8
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)