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Lavagnese vs Derthona FbC

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

36' Event
Tocila A.

AI Match Summary

Derthona FbC in this Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Derthona FbC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

7%
Lavagnese
20%
Draws
73%
Derthona FbC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Derthona FbC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Lavagnese haven't matched Derthona FbC's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Derthona FbC's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 74.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Lavagnese Clean Sheet 12%
Derthona FbC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lavagnese Derthona FbC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 10
Draws 10 7
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 0.9 1
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.07 1.72
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Derthona FbC
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Lavagnese
1:1
Jan 12, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Derthona FbC
0:3
Sep 15, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Lavagnese
2:2
Feb 4, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Derthona FbC vs Lavagnese
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lavagnese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.54

Derthona FbC Compare

Top Goalscorer Tocila A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.56
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lavagnese 10 / 100
Derthona FbC 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lavagnese Derthona FbC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derthona FbC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lavagnese scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Derthona FbC let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Lavagnese went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lavagnese VS Derthona FbC
1.14 Goals Scored 1
2.43 Goals Conceded 1
86% Over 1.5 63%
71% Over 2.5 50%
43% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lavagnese

(Home)
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Chisola
4 : 2
Lavagnese
19 Apr
Valenzana
2 : 0
Lavagnese
12 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 2
Vado
02 Apr
Gozzano
0 : 0
Lavagnese
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Derthona FbC

(Away)
20 Sept
Derthona FbC
1 : 0
Millesimo
16 Sept
Ligorna
2 : 3
Derthona FbC
13 Sept
Derthona FbC
1 : 1
Imperia Calcio
06 Sept
Celle Varazze
0 : 1
Derthona FbC
10 May
Derthona FbC
1 : 2
Gozzano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)