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Lavagnese vs Vado

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
Rosa F.
69' Event
Vita D.
72' Event
D'Antoni R.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 game between Lavagnese and Vado finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Vado.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Lavagnese
15%
Draws
76%
Vado
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Vado

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / Very High Confidence
  • Vado carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 76% — that's where the model lands on Vado taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 91.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Lavagnese Clean Sheet 10%
Vado Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lavagnese Vado
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 4 19
Draws 10 7
Losses 16 7
Goals Scored 0.9 2
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.08 2.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Vado
1:2
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Vado vs Lavagnese
1:0
Apr 27, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Vado vs Lavagnese
0:1
Dec 14, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Vado
1:2
Apr 7, 2024 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Vado
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lavagnese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.83
Avg xA / game 0.54

Vado Compare

Top Goalscorer Rosa F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vita D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.33
Avg xA / game 1.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lavagnese 22 / 100
Vado 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lavagnese Vado

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vado Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lavagnese found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Vado's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 33 matches.

Recent resilience: Lavagnese stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lavagnese VS Vado
1.17 Goals Scored 2.63
2.5 Goals Conceded 1
83% Over 1.5 100%
67% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lavagnese

(Home)
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Chisola
4 : 2
Lavagnese
19 Apr
Valenzana
2 : 0
Lavagnese
12 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 2
Vado
02 Apr
Gozzano
0 : 0
Lavagnese
Page 1 of 6

Vado

(Away)
14 Aug
Vado
2 : 1
Inter U23
10 Aug
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Vado
05 Aug
Torino
3 : 1
Vado
06 Jun
Vado
0 : 6
Scafatese
30 May
Vado
2 : 0
Barletta
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)