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Lavagnese vs Valenzana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Monteverde F.
67' Event
Gabelli L.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 game between Lavagnese and Valenzana finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lavagnese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Lavagnese
20%
Draws
40%
Valenzana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Lavagnese haven't matched Valenzana's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Lavagnese Clean Sheet 12%
Valenzana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lavagnese Valenzana
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 4 8
Draws 10 7
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 0.9 0.9
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Valenzana vs Lavagnese
2:0
Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Lavagnese vs Valenzana
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lavagnese Compare

Top Goalscorer Monteverde F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gabelli L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Valenzana Compare

Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lavagnese 30 / 100
Valenzana 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lavagnese Valenzana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valenzana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lavagnese found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Valenzana let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Valenzana has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lavagnese VS Valenzana
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lavagnese

(Home)
03 May
Lavagnese
2 : 3
Varese FC
26 Apr
Chisola
4 : 2
Lavagnese
19 Apr
Valenzana
2 : 0
Lavagnese
12 Apr
Lavagnese
1 : 2
Vado
02 Apr
Gozzano
0 : 0
Lavagnese
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Valenzana

(Away)
20 Sept
Asti Calcio
2 : 2
Valenzana
16 Sept
Valenzana
0 : 1
GSD Lascaris
12 Sept
Millesimo
2 : 1
Valenzana
06 Sept
Valenzana
1 : 2
Alessandria
03 May
Valenzana
2 : 3
Chisola
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)