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Lazio vs Monza - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lazio host Monza in the Serie A. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Monza have shipped 1.48 goals a game lately, while Lazio have conceded 1.1 and scored 1.69. Head-to-head, Lazio have won 3 to Monza's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Feb 9, 2025, ending 5:1. Model xG sits at 1.81 vs 1.31, favoring Lazio. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Lazio
20%
Draws
28%
Monza
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lazio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lazio come out ahead of Monza on wins alone.
  • Lazio are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Lazio Clean Sheet 18%
Monza Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lazio Monza
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 14
Draws 5 7
Losses 7 8
Goals Scored 1.69 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 9, 2025 Serie A
Lazio vs Monza
5:1
Nov 10, 2024 Serie A
Monza vs Lazio
0:1
May 4, 2024 Serie A
Monza vs Lazio
2:2
Sep 23, 2023 Serie A
Lazio vs Monza
1:1
Apr 2, 2023 Serie A
Monza vs Lazio
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lazio 76 / 100
Monza 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lazio Monza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lazio Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lazio went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Lazio's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Monza's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Lazio VS Monza
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lazio

(Home)
27 Sept
Lazio
2 : 0
Arezzo
19 Sept
Venezia
0 : 2
Lazio
12 Sept
Lazio
2 : 2
AC Milan
07 Sept
Udinese
1 : 2
Lazio
30 Aug
Lazio
1 : 0
Genoa
Page 1 of 6

Monza

(Away)
26 Sept
Monza
2 : 3
Cremonese
18 Sept
Monza
2 : 1
Sassuolo
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
06 Sept
Parma
1 : 1
Monza
01 Sept
Torino
0 : 1
Monza
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AS Roma 5 4 1 0 14:3 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15:8 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5:2 12
5 AC Milan 5 3 2 0 10:4 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9:4 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9:6 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9:9 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5:7 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5:10 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8:11 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5:8 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8:12 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6:12 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3:6 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3:10 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4:13 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)