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LDU Portoviejo vs EL Nacional - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Serie B Estadio Reales Tamarindos, Portoviejo
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Bucaram A.
16' Event
Da Costa F.
19' Event

AI Match Summary

LDU Portoviejo in this Serie B matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored LDU Portoviejo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
LDU Portoviejo
30%
Draws
35%
EL Nacional
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • LDU Portoviejo have won more games recently than EL Nacional.
  • Model gives LDU Portoviejo a 35% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • LDU Portoviejo have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
LDU Portoviejo Clean Sheet 68%
EL Nacional Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric LDU Portoviejo EL Nacional
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 5
Draws 10 6
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.17 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Serie B
LDU Portoviejo vs EL Nacional
3:2
Sep 5, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo
0:2
May 31, 2026 Serie B
EL Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo
0:1
Mar 28, 2026 Serie B
LDU Portoviejo vs EL Nacional
2:1
Sep 1, 2021 Serie B
EL Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

LDU Portoviejo Compare

Top Goalscorer Bucaram A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Da Costa F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

EL Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

LDU Portoviejo 68 / 100
EL Nacional 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
LDU Portoviejo EL Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LDU Portoviejo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

EL Nacional has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

LDU Portoviejo scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Solid form: LDU Portoviejo remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

LDU Portoviejo VS EL Nacional
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
0.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
38% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

LDU Portoviejo

(Home)
08 Oct
Dep. Santo Domingo
2 : 2
LDU Portoviejo
03 Oct
LDU Portoviejo
3 : 2
EL Nacional
24 Sept
LDU Portoviejo
2 : 2
22 de Julio
19 Sept
Gualaceo
0 : 0
LDU Portoviejo
17 Sept
LDU Portoviejo
0 : 2
Delfin
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EL Nacional

(Away)
07 Oct
22 de Julio
2 : 5
EL Nacional
03 Oct
LDU Portoviejo
3 : 2
EL Nacional
26 Sept
EL Nacional
0 : 3
Cumbaya
18 Sept
Dep. Santo Domingo
1 : 0
EL Nacional
12 Sept
EL Nacional
3 : 0
22 de Julio
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