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LDU Quito vs FBC Melgar

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Club Friendly
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

LDU Quito play FBC Melgar in the Club Friendly. It looks like a close match. Recently, LDU Quito averaged 1.29 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. FBC Melgar averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, LDU Quito won 0, FBC Melgar won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jun 18, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for LDU Quito and 1.38 for FBC Melgar. This points to a LDU Quito double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
LDU Quito
23%
Draws
35%
FBC Melgar
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: LDU Quito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • LDU Quito picked up more points recently compared to FBC Melgar.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.38 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
LDU Quito Clean Sheet 17%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric LDU Quito FBC Melgar
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 15 12
Draws 5 8
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1.29 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.82 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 18, 2026 Club Friendly
LDU Quito vs FBC Melgar
0:0
Jun 17, 2026 Club Friendly
LDU Quito vs FBC Melgar
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

LDU Quito 41 / 100
FBC Melgar 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
LDU Quito FBC Melgar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: LDU Quito or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

LDU Quito attacking → ← attacking FBC Melgar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

LDU Quito scored in 68% of their last 28 games.

FBC Melgar let in goals in 72% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

LDU Quito went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

FBC Melgar lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 44
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00