Sport Picks

Stadium Background

LDU Quito vs Libertad

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Sun, Jul 12, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

LDU Quito play Libertad in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, LDU Quito averaged 1.38 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. Libertad averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. In past meetings, LDU Quito won 2, Libertad won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 8, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.46 for LDU Quito and 1.15 for Libertad. This points to a LDU Quito double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
LDU Quito
23%
Draws
28%
Libertad
Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: LDU Quito

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • LDU Quito picked up more points recently compared to Libertad.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.46 vs 1.15 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%
LDU Quito Clean Sheet 21%
Libertad Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric LDU Quito Libertad
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 7
Draws 5 9
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.38 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.43

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Liga Pro
Libertad vs LDU Quito
2:1
Dec 14, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs LDU Quito
2:1
Nov 9, 2025 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs Libertad
3:1
Sep 13, 2025 Liga Pro
Libertad vs LDU Quito
0:1
May 20, 2025 Liga Pro
LDU Quito vs Libertad
1:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

LDU Quito 48 / 100
Libertad 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
LDU Quito Libertad

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: LDU Quito or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +19.6%
2.44
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +16.1%
2.70
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

LDU Quito attacking → ← attacking Libertad

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

LDU Quito scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Libertad let in goals in 83% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

LDU Quito went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Libertad lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 30
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.29
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.43

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle16121332:1837
2LDU Quito1683519:1327
3Dep. Cuenca1683518:1727
4U. Catolica1675426:1426
5Barcelona SC1675418:1326
6Aucas1675419:1626
7Orense1664621:2222
8Emelec1664613:1622
9Tecnico U.1662817:1620
10Macara1655615:1820
11Guayaquil City1654714:1919
12Mushuc Runa1646619:2118
13Leones del Norte1645715:1817
14Libertad1645716:2217
15Delfin164488:1516
16Manta1633107:1912