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Le Mans vs Lens

France France

Ligue 1 Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Our Tip

Match Events

15'
Boisse N.
20'
Cuisance M.
28'
Vercruysse J.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 game between Le Mans and Lens finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Le Mans
35%
Draws
45%
Lens
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lens

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Le Mans haven't matched Lens's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Le Mans Clean Sheet 11%
Lens Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Le Mans Lens
Matches Played 29 36
Wins 12 22
Draws 12 5
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 1.62 2.28
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Ligue 1
Le Mans vs Lens
2:2
May 15, 2020 Ligue 2
Lens vs Le Mans
0:0
Jul 27, 2019 Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Lens
1:2
May 24, 2013 Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Lens
2:1
Jul 28, 2012 Ligue 2
Lens vs Le Mans
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Le Mans Compare

Top Goalscorer Bourabaa A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Calodat L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lens Compare

Top Goalscorer Sima A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ivanovic F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Le Mans 30 / 100
Lens 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Le Mans Lens

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lens Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Le Mans scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Lens has conceded goals in 75% of their last 36 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Le Mans went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Le Mans VS Lens
1.38 Goals Scored 2.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Le Mans

(Home)
13 Sept
Le Mans
2 : 2
Lens
05 Sept
Nice
1 : 1
Le Mans
30 Aug
Rennes
3 : 2
Le Mans
22 Aug
Le Mans
2 : 2
Brest
15 Aug
Le Mans
0 : 1
Le Havre
Page 1 of 6

Lens

(Away)
13 Sept
Le Mans
2 : 2
Lens
10 Sept
Slavia Prague
2 : 3
Lens
05 Sept
Lens
0 : 1
Lorient
29 Aug
Strasbourg
2 : 1
Lens
22 Aug
Lens
5 : 2
Auxerre
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monaco 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
2 Lyon 5 3 2 0 10:2 11
3 Paris FC 5 3 2 0 8:3 11
4 Lille 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
5 Rennes 5 3 1 1 8:9 10
6 PSG 5 2 2 1 8:7 8
7 Angers 5 2 1 2 6:5 7
8 Strasbourg 5 2 1 2 10:10 7
9 Le Mans 5 1 3 1 9:9 6
10 Auxerre 5 2 0 3 7:12 6
11 Brest 5 1 2 2 7:8 5
12 Lorient 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 7:9 5
14 Nice 5 1 2 2 3:6 5
15 Lens 5 1 1 3 9:9 4
16 Troyes 5 1 1 3 4:11 4
17 Marseille 5 1 0 4 7:8 3
18 Le Havre 5 0 2 3 4:7 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)