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Le Mans vs Lorient - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

France France

Ligue 1 Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Bourabaa A.
Assist: Bamba R.
11'
Makengo J.
17'
Sub
Katseris P. In: Le Bris T.
Out: Katseris P.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 game between Le Mans and Lorient finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Le Mans.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Le Mans
20%
Draws
70%
Lorient
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lorient

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Lorient have managed 1.38 goals a game lately — Le Mans are scoring more at 1.55.
  • Model gives Lorient a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Le Mans Clean Sheet 16%
Lorient Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Le Mans Lorient
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 11
Draws 11 8
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.55 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Ligue 1
Le Mans vs Lorient
2:1
Feb 4, 2020 Ligue 2
Lorient vs Le Mans
4:2
Aug 23, 2019 Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Lorient
1:2
Aug 13, 2019 Coupe de la Ligue
Lorient vs Le Mans
1:2
Jan 11, 2012 Coupe de la Ligue
Le Mans vs Lorient
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Le Mans Compare

Top Goalscorer Bourabaa A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Diallo H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Lorient Compare

Top Goalscorer Jensen I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Le Mans 19 / 100
Lorient 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Le Mans Lorient

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lorient Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Le Mans scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Lorient's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Le Mans has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Le Mans VS Lorient
1.38 Goals Scored 0.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 38%
88% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Le Mans

(Home)
31 Oct
Troyes
2 : 0
Le Mans
25 Oct
Auxerre
1 : 1
Le Mans
16 Oct
Le Mans
0 : 3
Toulouse
10 Oct
PSG
3 : 1
Le Mans
02 Oct
Guingamp
2 : 1
Le Mans
Page 1 of 6

Lorient

(Away)
02 Nov
Lorient
0 : 2
Brest
25 Oct
Angers
0 : 0
Lorient
18 Oct
Lorient
1 : 0
Monaco
10 Oct
Lorient
1 : 0
Paris FC
19 Sept
Le Mans
2 : 1
Lorient
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 9 6 2 1 21:10 20
2 Lille 9 5 3 1 12:6 18
3 Lyon 9 5 2 2 15:7 17
4 Paris FC 9 5 2 2 16:10 17
5 Rennes 9 5 1 3 20:19 16
6 Marseille 9 5 0 4 20:13 15
7 Monaco 9 4 3 2 12:10 15
8 Nice 9 4 2 3 13:12 14
9 Lens 9 4 1 4 16:13 13
10 Brest 9 3 3 3 16:12 12
11 Lorient 9 3 3 3 7:8 12
12 Toulouse 9 2 4 3 12:13 10
13 Strasbourg 9 3 1 5 17:19 10
14 Auxerre 9 3 1 5 13:23 10
15 Angers 9 2 2 5 9:17 8
16 Troyes 9 2 2 5 7:16 8
17 Le Mans 9 1 4 4 11:18 7
18 Le Havre 9 0 2 7 9:20 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)