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Le Mans vs Lorient

France France

Ligue 1 Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Sat, Sep 19, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Le Mans host Lorient in the Ligue 1. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Le Mans have averaged 1.57 scored and 1.11 conceded recently, against Lorient's 1.62 scored and 1.17 conceded. Head-to-head, Le Mans have won 1 to Lorient's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Feb 4, 2020, ending 4:2. Model xG sits at 1.31 vs 1.38, favoring Lorient. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Le Mans
35%
Draws
37%
Lorient
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lorient

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

28% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lorient come out ahead of Le Mans on wins alone.
  • Model gives Le Mans a 28% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligue 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Lorient have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Le Mans Clean Sheet 17%
Lorient Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Le Mans Lorient
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 12 14
Draws 11 6
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 1.57 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.11 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2020 Ligue 2
Lorient vs Le Mans
4:2
Aug 23, 2019 Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Lorient
1:2
Aug 13, 2019 Coupe de la Ligue
Lorient vs Le Mans
1:2
Jan 11, 2012 Coupe de la Ligue
Le Mans vs Lorient
0:1
Jan 16, 2010 Ligue 1
Le Mans vs Lorient
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Le Mans 39 / 100
Lorient 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Le Mans Lorient

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Le Mans Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Le Mans scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Lorient has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Le Mans has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Le Mans VS Lorient
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Le Mans

(Home)
05 Sept
Nice
1 : 1
Le Mans
30 Aug
Rennes
3 : 2
Le Mans
22 Aug
Le Mans
2 : 2
Brest
15 Aug
Le Mans
0 : 1
Le Havre
08 Aug
Saumur Olympique
0 : 0
Le Mans
Page 1 of 6

Lorient

(Away)
05 Sept
Lens
0 : 1
Lorient
29 Aug
Lorient
1 : 2
Troyes
22 Aug
Nice
0 : 0
Lorient
15 Aug
Elversberg
4 : 1
Lorient
08 Aug
Angers
2 : 1
Lorient
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Monaco 3 3 0 0 5:1 9
2 Paris FC 3 2 1 0 6:2 7
3 Lyon 3 2 1 0 6:2 7
4 Lille 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
5 Rennes 3 2 1 0 7:5 7
6 Strasbourg 3 2 0 1 8:7 6
7 Brest 3 1 2 0 6:5 5
8 Lorient 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
9 Troyes 3 1 1 1 4:7 4
10 Marseille 3 1 0 2 6:5 3
11 Lens 3 1 0 2 6:5 3
12 Angers 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
13 Le Mans 3 0 2 1 5:6 2
14 PSG 3 0 2 1 5:6 2
15 Nice 3 0 2 1 1:4 2
16 Le Havre 3 0 1 2 2:4 1
17 Toulouse 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
18 Auxerre 3 0 0 3 4:11 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2027/2028 (Main)