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Stadium Background

Le Mans vs Pau

France France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Gueye D.
Assist: Robin M.
38'
Anziani J.
38'
Kalulu J.

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between Le Mans and Pau finished 4-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Le Mans.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Le Mans
6%
Draws
4%
Pau
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Le Mans

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Le Mans come out ahead of Pau on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Le Mans taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Le Mans have won 4 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Le Mans Clean Sheet 20%
Pau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Le Mans Pau
Matches Played 28 26
Wins 17 9
Draws 8 4
Losses 3 13
Goals Scored 1.38 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Ligue 2
Le Mans vs Pau
4:0
Nov 21, 2025 Ligue 2
Pau vs Le Mans
1:2
Feb 8, 2019 Ligue 3
Pau vs Le Mans
0:1
Aug 31, 2018 Ligue 3
Le Mans vs Pau
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Le Mans Compare

Top Goalscorer Gueye D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bretelle L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Pau Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Le Mans 85 / 100
Pau 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Le Mans Pau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Le Mans found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Pau conceded in 65% of 26 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.75 goals.

Le Mans went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Le Mans VS Pau
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Le Mans

(Home)
25 Jul
Le Mans
1 : 0
Nantes
22 Jul
Le Mans
3 : 1
Versailles
18 Jul
Le Mans
2 : 3
La Roche Vendee
09 May
Bastia
0 : 2
Le Mans
02 May
Le Mans
1 : 1
Reims
Page 1 of 6

Pau

(Away)
25 Jul
Real Sociedad B
4 : 0
Pau
21 Jul
Espanyol
4 : 0
Pau
17 Jul
Pau
3 : 0
Tarbes
11 Jul
Real Sociedad
0 : 1
Pau
09 May
Reims
5 : 3
Pau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Troyes34207760:3367
2Le Mans341614450:3162
3St Etienne341861059:3860
4Red Star341610845:3758
5Rodez341513645:3958
6Reims341414653:3556
7Annecy341571249:3952
8Montpellier341491141:3151
9Pau341291348:6245
10Dunkerque3411101353:4543
11Guingamp3410101442:4940
12Grenoble348151133:3939
13Clermont349101538:4437
14Nancy349101535:5237
15Boulogne34991634:4936
16Laval346141430:4832
17Bastia345131623:3928
18Amiens SC34662237:6524
19AC Ajaccio00000:00
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Main)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3 (Main)