Sport Picks
Match Events
17'
17'
Twamley L.
(Penalty)
19'
19'
Ryan-Phillips C.
74'
74'
Glennon W.
AI Match Summary
The National League North 2025/2026 game between Leamington and Merthyr Town finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Merthyr Town.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Merthyr Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
39%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Merthyr Town come out ahead of Leamington on wins alone.
- Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Leamington Clean Sheet 20%
Merthyr Town Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leamington | Merthyr Town |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 6 | 9 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 17 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.39 | 1.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.14 | 1.6 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 24, 2026 National League North
Leamington vs Merthyr Town
1:2
Nov 25, 2025 National League North
Merthyr Town vs Leamington
4:1
Nov 22, 2016 Southern Premier League
Merthyr Town vs Leamington
1:1
Aug 16, 2016 Southern Premier League
Leamington vs Merthyr Town
1:0
Mar 5, 2016 Southern Premier League
Merthyr Town vs Leamington
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leamington Compare
Top Goalscorer Glennon W.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Merthyr Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Ryan-Phillips C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leamington 32 / 100
Merthyr Town 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leamington Merthyr Town
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Merthyr Town Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Merthyr Town has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.
Attacking prowess: Leamington scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.
Solid form: Leamington remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Leamington VS Merthyr Town
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Leamington
(Home) 26 Sept
Quorn
4 : 2 Leamington
22 Sept
Gainsborough
3 : 0 Leamington
19 Sept
Leamington
1 : 1 Gainsborough
12 Sept
Stortford
3 : 1 Leamington
05 Sept
Leamington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Leamington
1 : 1 Gainsborough
05 Sept
Leamington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
29 Aug
Leamington
1 : 1 Worcester
15 Aug
Leamington
0 : 1 Kettering
11 Aug
Leamington
1 : 1 Anstey Nomads
Page 1 of 4
Merthyr Town
(Away) 26 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 2 Marine
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
19 Sept
Merthyr Town
1 : 1 Truro
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 6
22 Sept
Truro
2 : 0 Merthyr Town
12 Sept
Scarborough Athletic
0 : 0 Merthyr Town
08 Sept
Chester
0 : 1 Merthyr Town
31 Aug
Buxton
2 : 1 Merthyr Town
22 Aug
South Shields
1 : 1 Merthyr Town
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AFC Fylde | 46 | 32 | 4 | 10 | 112:51 | 100 |
| 2 | South Shields | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 99:43 | 95 |
| 3 | Kidderminster | 46 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 74:51 | 87 |
| 4 | Macclesfield | 46 | 24 | 7 | 15 | 81:68 | 79 |
| 5 | Buxton | 46 | 22 | 7 | 17 | 83:61 | 73 |
| 6 | Scarborough Athletic | 46 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 61:52 | 73 |
| 7 | Chester | 46 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 66:64 | 73 |
| 8 | Merthyr Town | 46 | 22 | 4 | 20 | 95:86 | 70 |
| 9 | Darlington FC | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 78:68 | 69 |
| 10 | Spennymoor | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 62:69 | 68 |
| 11 | Telford | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 85:65 | 65 |
| 12 | Marine | 46 | 18 | 8 | 20 | 62:72 | 62 |
| 13 | Radcliffe | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 76:83 | 60 |
| 14 | Southport | 46 | 16 | 12 | 18 | 64:71 | 60 |
| 15 | Chorley | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 66:65 | 57 |
| 16 | Worksop | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 66:74 | 57 |
| 17 | Oxford City | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 62:67 | 56 |
| 18 | Bedford | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 66:77 | 53 |
| 19 | King’s Lynn | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 56:64 | 52 |
| 20 | Hereford | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 64:79 | 52 |
| 21 | Curzon Ashton | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 67:88 | 52 |
| 22 | Alfreton | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 49:82 | 50 |
| 23 | Peterborough Sports | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 51:96 | 39 |
| 24 | Leamington | 46 | 7 | 8 | 31 | 41:90 | 29 |
Promotion - National League (Main)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - National League North 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
