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Lebanon U23 vs South Korea U23

Asia Asia

AFC Asian Cup U23 Al-Shabab Club Stadium
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AI Match Summary

Lebanon U23 play South Korea U23 in the AFC Asian Cup U23. South Korea U23 are favorites here. Recently, Lebanon U23 averaged 2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. South Korea U23 averaged 1.63 goals scored and 1.25 conceded. In past meetings, Lebanon U23 won 0, South Korea U23 won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 10, 2026 ended 2:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Lebanon U23 and 1.71 for South Korea U23. This points to a South Korea U23 double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Lebanon U23
17%
Draws
13%
South Korea U23
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Lebanon U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • South Korea U23 has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Lebanon U23.
  • Model forecasts a 70% win probability edge for Lebanon U23.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in AFC Asian Cup U23 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Lebanon U23 Clean Sheet 68%
South Korea U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lebanon U23 South Korea U23
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 7 15
Draws 5 4
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 2 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.80 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 AFC Asian Cup U23
Lebanon U23 vs South Korea U23
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lebanon U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Shahin L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader El Fadl A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

South Korea U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Lee Hyun-Yong
1 Goals
Assists Leader Jeong Jae-sang
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lebanon U23 77 / 100
South Korea U23 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lebanon U23 South Korea U23

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lebanon U23 scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

South Korea U23 let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 6.00 goals.

Lebanon U23 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

South Korea U23 lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lebanon U23 VS South Korea U23
2 Goals Scored 1.63
1.8 Goals Conceded 1.25
80% Over 1.5 63%
80% Over 2.5 38%
60% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vietnam U2333005:19
2Jordan U2332014:46
3Saudi Arabia U2331023:43
4Kyrgyzstan U2330031:40
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Japan U23330010:09
2United Arab Emirates U2331113:44
3Syria U2331112:64
4Qatar U2330030:50
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Uzbekistan U2332105:27
2South Korea U2331114:44
3Lebanon U2331025:73
4Iran U2330210:12
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Australia U2332014:36
2China U2331201:05
3Iraq U2330212:32
4Thailand U2330212:32