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Leca vs AD Marco 09 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estadio do Leca Futebol Clube, Leca da Palmeira
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Leca host AD Marco 09 in the Liga 3. Little to choose between these two on current form. Recent numbers: Leca at 1.83 goals for, 1.14 against; AD Marco 09 at 0.97 for, 1.1 against. Head-to-head, Leca have won 2 to AD Marco 09's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on May 18, 2025, ending 3:2. xG projections (0.75 - 1.25) back Leca to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Leca
15%
Draws
50%
AD Marco 09
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: AD Marco 09

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • AD Marco 09 haven't matched Leca's recent run of results.
  • 50% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Liga 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Leca Clean Sheet 19%
AD Marco 09 Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leca AD Marco 09
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 11
Draws 9 8
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.83 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 18, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
AD Marco 09 vs Leca
3:2
Apr 27, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Leca vs AD Marco 09
1:0
Feb 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
AD Marco 09 vs Leca
0:1
Sep 29, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs AD Marco 09
0:0
Sep 8, 2024 Taça de Portugal
Leca vs AD Marco 09
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leca 32 / 100
AD Marco 09 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leca AD Marco 09

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AD Marco 09 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leca found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

AD Marco 09 has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Leca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Leca VS AD Marco 09
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Leca

(Home)
20 Sept
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Leca
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
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AD Marco 09

(Away)
20 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Maia Lidador
12 Sept
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Vitoria Guimaraes B
06 Sept
Sao Joao de Ver
0 : 0
AD Marco 09
30 Aug
Regua
0 : 1
AD Marco 09
23 Aug
AD Marco 09
2 : 0
SC Vianense
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
2 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 6:3 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
4 AD Fafe 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
5 SC Vianense 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Leca 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
7 Vitoria Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 2:7 4
9 Sao Joao de Ver 5 0 3 2 3:6 3
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 13:2 15
2 Atletico CP 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 9:5 7
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
6 Caldas SC 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
7 Lusitano GC 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Covilha 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
9 Santarem 5 1 1 3 3:10 4
10 Vitoria Sernache 5 0 1 4 3:13 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)