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Leca vs Gondomar

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
Martelo P.
(Penalty)
71' Event
Pereira V. O.
89' Event
Martelo P.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Leca in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Leca
30%
Draws
29%
Gondomar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Leca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Leca lately — more wins on the board than Gondomar.
  • Win probability leans Leca's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 29%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Leca Clean Sheet 20%
Gondomar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leca Gondomar
Matches Played 36 32
Wins 22 13
Draws 9 7
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 2.03 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.11 0.91
Expected Goals (xG) 1.73 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Gondomar vs Leca
0:2
Nov 10, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs Gondomar
3:2
Mar 5, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Gondomar vs Leca
2:0
Nov 20, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs Gondomar
0:2
Jan 23, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Leca vs Gondomar
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leca Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira Ferreira R. M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.86

Gondomar Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira V. O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Calo
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leca 42 / 100
Gondomar 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leca Gondomar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Leca scored in 86% of their last 36 outings.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Leca has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Gondomar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Leca VS -
2.25 Goals Scored 0
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Leca

(Home)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
09 Aug
Leca
1 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
Page 1 of 8

Gondomar

(Away)
13 Apr
Gondomar
0 : 0
Coimbroes
06 Apr
AD Marco 09
1 : 0
Gondomar
29 Mar
Gondomar
0 : 0
Camacha
16 Mar
Regua
0 : 1
Gondomar
09 Mar
Gondomar
0 : 2
Leca
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leca 26 19 5 2 52:17 62
2 AD Marco 09 26 16 5 5 35:16 53
3 SC Salgueiros 26 16 5 5 39:18 53
4 Cinfaes 26 11 8 7 33:25 41
5 Beira Mar 26 10 9 7 31:28 39
6 Uniao Lamas 26 11 5 10 31:27 38
7 FC Alpendorada 26 10 6 10 26:24 36
8 Machico 26 9 8 9 28:27 35
9 Camacha 26 8 11 7 30:35 35
10 Guarda FC 26 9 5 12 26:30 32
11 Gondomar 26 8 7 11 16:28 31
12 Coimbroes 26 5 6 15 24:43 21
13 Maritimo B 26 4 5 17 25:49 17
14 Regua 26 1 5 20 16:45 8
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)