Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Leca vs Vitoria Sernache

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 Estádio Nacional do Jamor, Lisbon - Oeiras
Wed, Jun 10, 2026
2 - 1
03:30 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Muale Nzanza D.
70' Event
Ekanga Ondoa H. O.
1' Event
Balde F.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Leca in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Leca
20%
Draws
29%
Vitoria Sernache
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Leca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Leca have won more games recently than Vitoria Sernache.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Leca have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Leca, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Leca Clean Sheet 68%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leca Vitoria Sernache
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 12
Draws 10 10
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 1.83 1
Goals Conceded 1.2 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group A
Leca vs Vitoria Sernache
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leca Compare

Top Goalscorer Muale Nzanza D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Vitoria Sernache Compare

Top Goalscorer Ekanga Ondoa H. O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leca 41 / 100
Vitoria Sernache 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leca Vitoria Sernache

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Leca Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Leca scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Leca remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Difficult form: Vitoria Sernache registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leca VS Vitoria Sernache
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Leca

(Home)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
09 Aug
Leca
1 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
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Vitoria Sernache

(Away)
13 Sept
Caldas SC
2 : 0
Vitoria Sernache
06 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 3
CF Os Belenenses
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
Oliveirense
3 : 2
Vitoria Sernache
16 Aug
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0
Covilha
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Leca 2
Vitoria Sernache 1