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Lecce vs Bologna - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lecce host Bologna in the Serie A. This one's hard to separate. Bologna have shipped 1.5 goals a game lately, while Lecce have conceded 1.33 and scored 0.97. Past meetings favor Bologna slightly — 0-3-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 12, 2026, ending 2:0. xG projections (1.31 - 1.44) back Bologna to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Lecce
20%
Draws
20%
Bologna
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lecce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bologna lately — more wins on the board than Lecce.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Lecce Clean Sheet 16%
Bologna Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lecce Bologna
Matches Played 30 34
Wins 11 13
Draws 4 6
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.97 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie A
Bologna vs Lecce
2:0
Sep 28, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs Bologna
2:2
Feb 9, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs Bologna
0:0
Nov 2, 2024 Serie A
Bologna vs Lecce
1:0
Feb 11, 2024 Serie A
Bologna vs Lecce
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lecce 36 / 100
Bologna 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lecce Bologna

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bologna Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bologna has conceded goals in 76% of their last 34 outings.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Away concern: Bologna has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Lecce scored in 50% of their last 30 games.

Scoring Trends

Lecce VS Bologna
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lecce

(Home)
20 Sept
AC Milan
3 : 0
Lecce
13 Sept
Lecce
3 : 2
Monza
07 Sept
Cagliari
1 : 0
Lecce
31 Aug
Lecce
0 : 4
AS Roma
23 Aug
Venezia
0 : 2
Lecce
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Bologna

(Away)
19 Sept
Bologna
1 : 1
Torino
13 Sept
Napoli
1 : 0
Bologna
06 Sept
Bologna
2 : 2
Sassuolo
31 Aug
Atalanta
1 : 0
Bologna
24 Aug
Bologna
0 : 1
Lazio
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 AS Roma 5 4 1 0 14:3 13
2 Inter 5 4 1 0 15:8 13
3 Lazio 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
4 Cagliari 5 4 0 1 5:2 12
5 AC Milan 5 3 2 0 10:4 11
6 Frosinone 5 3 1 1 9:4 10
7 Juventus 5 3 1 1 8:4 10
8 Como 5 3 1 1 9:6 10
9 Napoli 5 2 1 2 7:6 7
10 Sassuolo 5 2 1 2 9:9 7
11 Atalanta 5 2 0 3 5:7 6
12 Lecce 5 2 0 3 5:10 6
13 Udinese 5 1 1 3 8:11 4
14 Torino 5 1 1 3 5:8 4
15 Parma 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Monza 5 1 1 3 8:12 4
17 Fiorentina 5 1 1 3 6:12 4
18 Bologna 5 0 2 3 3:6 2
19 Genoa 5 0 1 4 3:10 1
20 Venezia 5 0 0 5 4:13 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)