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Lecce vs Genoa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie A Stadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Osmajic M.
Assist: Junior Messias
28' Event
Junior Messias
Assist: El Shaarawy S.
40' Event
Maleh Y.

AI Match Summary

Genoa in this Serie A matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Genoa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Lecce
15%
Draws
68%
Genoa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Genoa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Genoa have won more games recently than Lecce.
  • 68% — that's where the model lands on Genoa taking it.
  • Regular Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Lecce Clean Sheet 14%
Genoa Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lecce Genoa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 3 4
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 1.07 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.62 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2026 Serie A
Lecce vs Genoa
1:2
May 24, 2026 Serie A
Lecce vs Genoa
1:0
Aug 23, 2025 Serie A
Genoa vs Lecce
0:0
Mar 14, 2025 Serie A
Genoa vs Lecce
2:1
Jan 5, 2025 Serie A
Lecce vs Genoa
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lecce Compare

Top Goalscorer Maleh Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Genoa Compare

Top Goalscorer Osmajic M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Junior Messias
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lecce 15 / 100
Genoa 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lecce Genoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Genoa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Genoa let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Lecce scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Lecce has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lecce VS Genoa
1 Goals Scored 0.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lecce

(Home)
01 Nov
Lecce
1 : 2
Genoa
29 Oct
Frosinone
5 : 1
Lecce
25 Oct
Lecce
0 : 2
Juventus
18 Oct
Udinese
0 : 3
Lecce
11 Oct
Lecce
1 : 2
Bologna
Page 1 of 6

Genoa

(Away)
01 Nov
Lecce
1 : 2
Genoa
28 Oct
Genoa
2 : 0
Juventus
25 Oct
Genoa
1 : 0
Venezia
17 Oct
AS Roma
2 : 0
Genoa
10 Oct
Genoa
2 : 1
Fiorentina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lazio 10 9 1 0 24:8 28
2 Inter 10 8 1 1 26:13 25
3 AS Roma 10 7 3 0 28:10 24
4 Como 10 7 2 1 18:8 23
5 AC Milan 10 6 3 1 21:12 21
6 Frosinone 10 6 2 2 24:14 20
7 Juventus 10 5 2 3 13:10 17
8 Napoli 10 4 2 4 17:13 14
9 Bologna 10 4 2 4 14:13 14
10 Torino 10 4 1 5 14:16 13
11 Genoa 10 4 1 5 10:14 13
12 Cagliari 10 4 1 5 9:15 13
13 Atalanta 10 3 2 5 16:20 11
14 Lecce 10 3 0 7 11:21 9
15 Parma 10 2 2 6 8:15 8
16 Fiorentina 10 2 2 6 15:23 8
17 Sassuolo 10 2 2 6 16:26 8
18 Monza 10 2 1 7 17:24 7
19 Udinese 10 1 2 7 11:23 5
20 Venezia 10 1 0 9 6:20 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)