Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze

Poland Poland

Polish Cup 2025/2026 Stadion Poznan, Poznań
Lech Poznan Logo

Lech Poznan

0 - 1
FT
Gornik Zabrze Logo

Gornik Zabrze

Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Sadilek L.
Assist: Ikia Dimi Y.
45'
Sadilek L.
60'
Sub
Rodriguez P. In: Thordarson G.
Out: Rodriguez P.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 0-1, with Gornik Zabrze advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Lech Poznan
39%
Draws
31%
Gornik Zabrze
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Lech Poznan carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Lech Poznan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Lech Poznan, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Lech Poznan Clean Sheet 16%
Gornik Zabrze Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lech Poznan Gornik Zabrze
Matches Played 28 27
Wins 17 14
Draws 5 6
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.88 1.88
Goals Conceded 1 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2026 Super Cup
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze
3:1
Mar 4, 2026 Polish Cup
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze
0:1
Feb 7, 2026 Ekstraklasa
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan
0:1
Aug 2, 2025 Ekstraklasa
Lech Poznan vs Gornik Zabrze
2:1
Dec 6, 2024 Ekstraklasa
Gornik Zabrze vs Lech Poznan
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lech Poznan Compare

Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Gornik Zabrze Compare

Top Goalscorer Sadilek L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lech Poznan 30 / 100
Gornik Zabrze 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lech Poznan Gornik Zabrze

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lech Poznan scored in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Solid form: Lech Poznan remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Gornik Zabrze let in goals in 56% of their last 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lech Poznan VS Gornik Zabrze
1.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lech Poznan

(Home)
29 Jul
Lech Poznan
1 : 5
Aarhus
25 Jul
Lech Poznan
0 : 0
Cracovia
21 Jul
Aarhus
1 : 4
Lech Poznan
16 Jul
Lech Poznan
3 : 1
Gornik Zabrze
11 Jul
Lech Poznan
4 : 0
Bohemians 1905
Page 1 of 6

Gornik Zabrze

(Away)
29 Jul
Gornik Zabrze
1 : 1
Fenerbahce
25 Jul
Gornik Zabrze
2 : 1
Slask Wroclaw
21 Jul
Fenerbahce
1 : 0
Gornik Zabrze
16 Jul
Lech Poznan
3 : 1
Gornik Zabrze
10 Jul
Nordsjaelland
0 : 2
Gornik Zabrze
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/64-finals
Zawisza-
TBD-
TBD-
Tychy-
GKS Wikielec-
TBD-
Podbeskidzie2
R. Rzeszow1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg-
TBD-
Hutnik Krakow3
Zaglebie Sosnowiec0
Bytom Odrzanski-
TBD-
TBD-
Wisla-
Beskid Andrychow-
TBD-
Chojniczanka2
Rekord Bielsko-Biala1
Legnica II-
TBD-
Swit Szczecin2
LKS Lodz II1
Malapanew Ozimek-
TBD-
TBD-
Pruszkow-
S. Rzeszow-
TBD-
TBD-
Korona Kielce-
LKS Lomza-
TBD-
TBD-
Odra Opole-
Korona Kielce II-
TBD-
TBD-
Piast Gliwice-
Gryf Slupsk-
TBD-
TBD-
Polonia Warszawa-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Lech Poznan-
Stal Mielec-
TBD-
TBD-
Puszcza-
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki3
Wisla Pulawy0
TBD-
Lechia Gdansk-
Arka Gdynia-
TBD-
TBD-
Motor Lublin-
Legia II-
TBD-
TBD-
Gornik Zabrze-
Avia Swidnik-
TBD-
TBD-
Ruch Chorzow-
Swinoujscie-
TBD-
KKS Kalisz0
GKS Jastrzebie2
Goczalkowice Zdroj II-
TBD-
Stal Stalowa Wola3
Skra Czestochowa1
Warta Poznan1
Olimpia Elblag0
Polonia Bytom7
Zaglebie II1
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol-
TBD-
KS Wieczysta Krakow0
Ol. Grudziadz1
Tomaszow Mazowiecki-
TBD-
TBD-
Slask Wroclaw-
Rakow Czestochowa-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Leczna-
TBD-
TBD-
Cracovia-
LKS Lodz-
TBD-
TBD-
Chrobry Glogow-
GKS Katowice-
TBD-
TBD-
Wisla Plock-
Legnica-
TBD-
TBD-
Pogon Siedlce-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Jagiellonia-
Legia-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Kotwica Kolobrzeg-
TBD-
TBD-
Pogon Szczecin-
Termalica Bruk-Bet-
TBD-
TBD-
Widzew Lodz-
Radomiak Radom-
TBD-
TBD-
Zaglebie-
1/32-finals
Zawisza2
Tychy0
GKS Wikielec2
Podbeskidzie1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg0
Hutnik Krakow1
Bytom Odrzanski0
Wisla1
Beskid Andrychow0
Chojniczanka3
Legnica II1
Swit Szczecin3
Malapanew Ozimek1
Pruszkow2
S. Rzeszow0
Korona Kielce1
LKS Lomza0
Odra Opole2
Korona Kielce II0
Piast Gliwice1
Gryf Slupsk1
Polonia Warszawa0
TBD-
Lech Poznan-
Stal Mielec1
Puszcza2
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki0
Lechia Gdansk1
Arka Gdynia1
Motor Lublin0
Legia II0
Gornik Zabrze3
Avia Swidnik3
Ruch Chorzow1
Swinoujscie3
GKS Jastrzebie2
Goczalkowice Zdroj II3
Stal Stalowa Wola1
Warta Poznan0
Polonia Bytom1
Polonia Sroda Wielkopol1
Ol. Grudziadz3
Tomaszow Mazowiecki1
Slask Wroclaw2
Rakow Czestochowa-
TBD-
Leczna1
Cracovia5
LKS Lodz5
Chrobry Glogow3
GKS Katowice4
Wisla Plock2
Legnica2
Pogon Siedlce0
TBD-
Jagiellonia-
Legia-
TBD-
Kotwica Kolobrzeg0
Pogon Szczecin3
Termalica Bruk-Bet2
Widzew Lodz3
Radomiak Radom0
Zaglebie2
1/16-finals
Zawisza3
GKS Wikielec0
Hutnik Krakow0
Wisla1
Chojniczanka3
Swit Szczecin1
Pruszkow0
Korona Kielce3
Odra Opole0
Piast Gliwice2
Gryf Slupsk1
Lech Poznan2
Puszcza1
Lechia Gdansk3
Arka Gdynia1
Gornik Zabrze2
Avia Swidnik3
Swinoujscie0
Goczalkowice Zdroj II0
Polonia Bytom7
Ol. Grudziadz0
Slask Wroclaw1
Rakow Czestochowa3
Cracovia0
LKS Lodz1
GKS Katowice2
Legnica2
Jagiellonia3
Legia1
Pogon Szczecin2
Widzew Lodz1
Zaglebie0
1/8-finals
Zawisza4
Wisla1
Chojniczanka2
Korona Kielce1
Piast Gliwice0
Lech Poznan2
Lechia Gdansk1
Gornik Zabrze3
Avia Swidnik4
Polonia Bytom2
Slask Wroclaw1
Rakow Czestochowa2
GKS Katowice3
Jagiellonia1
Pogon Szczecin0
Widzew Lodz1
Quarter-finals
Zawisza2
Chojniczanka1
Lech Poznan0
Gornik Zabrze1
Avia Swidnik1
Rakow Czestochowa2
GKS Katowice2
Widzew Lodz1
Semi-finals
Zawisza0
Gornik Zabrze1
Rakow Czestochowa5
GKS Katowice4
Final
Gornik Zabrze2
Rakow Czestochowa0