Sport Picks
Lech Poznan vs Mainz
Europe
Conference League 2025/2026 Stadion Poznan, Poznań 
Match Events
26'
26'
Sub
Widmer S. In: Kawasaki S.
Out: Widmer S.
28'
28'
Kawasaki S.
Assist: Hollerbach B.
31'
31'
Kozubal A.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Conference League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
4%
6%
90%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Mainz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Form's been kind to Lech Poznan lately — more wins on the board than Mainz.
- Model gives Mainz a 90% chance of winning this.
- European nights carry their own weight — this Conference League 2025/2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Lech Poznan Clean Sheet 10%
Mainz Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lech Poznan | Mainz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 17 | 15 |
| Draws | 5 | 7 |
| Losses | 6 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 2.63 | 4.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 0.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.63 | 4.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 0.63 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 11, 2025 Conference League
Lech Poznan vs Mainz
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lech Poznan Compare
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31
Mainz Compare
Top Goalscorer Kawasaki S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 3.75
Avg xA / game 2.29
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lech Poznan 10 / 100
Mainz 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lech Poznan Mainz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MAI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lech Poznan's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Recent resilience: Lech Poznan stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Mainz has conceded goals in 64% of their last 28 outings.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Lech Poznan VS Mainz
2.63 Goals Scored 4.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
75% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Lech Poznan
(Home) 25 Jul
Lech Poznan
0 : 0 Cracovia
21 Jul
Aarhus
1 : 4 Lech Poznan
16 Jul
Lech Poznan
3 : 1 Gornik Zabrze
11 Jul
Lech Poznan
4 : 0 Bohemians 1905
04 Jul
Lech Poznan
3 : 1 Podbrezova
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Lech Poznan
0 : 0 Cracovia
16 Jul
Lech Poznan
3 : 1 Gornik Zabrze
11 Jul
Lech Poznan
4 : 0 Bohemians 1905
04 Jul
Lech Poznan
3 : 1 Podbrezova
23 May
Lech Poznan
2 : 2 Wisla Plock
Page 1 of 4
Mainz
(Away) 25 Jul
Mainz
3 : 0 Holstein Kiel
17 Jul
Mainz
4 : 1 Kaiserslautern
11 Jul
Eisbachtal
0 : 10 Mainz
04 Jul
Pfeddersheim
0 : 11 Mainz
16 May
Heidenheim
0 : 2 Mainz
Page 1 of 6
11 Jul
Eisbachtal
0 : 10 Mainz
04 Jul
Pfeddersheim
0 : 11 Mainz
16 May
Heidenheim
0 : 2 Mainz
03 May
St. Pauli
1 : 2 Mainz
19 Apr
B. Monchengladbach
1 : 1 Mainz
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strasbourg | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11:5 | 16 |
| 2 | Rakow Czestochowa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9:2 | 14 |
| 3 | AEK | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14:7 | 13 |
| 4 | Sparta Prague | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:3 | 13 |
| 5 | Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13:7 | 13 |
| 6 | Shakhtar | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10:5 | 13 |
| 7 | Mainz | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7:3 | 13 |
| 8 | AEK Larnaca | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7:1 | 12 |
| 9 | Lausanne | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:3 | 11 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:6 | 10 |
| 11 | Lech Poznan | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12:8 | 10 |
| 12 | Samsunspor | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 10 |
| 13 | Celje | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:7 | 10 |
| 14 | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:7 | 10 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 16 | Rijeka | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:2 | 9 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5:4 | 9 |
| 18 | Omonia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:4 | 8 |
| 19 | Noah | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:7 | 8 |
| 20 | Drita | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4:8 | 8 |
| 21 | KuPS | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 22 | Shkendija Tetovo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4:5 | 7 |
| 23 | Zrinjski | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:10 | 7 |
| 24 | Sigma Olomouc | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:9 | 7 |
| 25 | Univ. Craiova | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:8 | 7 |
| 26 | Lincoln Red Imps | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:15 | 7 |
| 27 | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9:9 | 6 |
| 28 | Legia | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 29 | Slovan Bratislava | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 5:9 | 6 |
| 30 | Breidablik | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 31 | Shamrock Rovers | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7:13 | 4 |
| 32 | Hacken | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5:8 | 3 |
| 33 | Hamrun | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4:11 | 3 |
| 34 | Shelbourne | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0:7 | 2 |
| 35 | Aberdeen | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:14 | 2 |
| 36 | Rapid Vienna | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3:14 | 1 |
Promotion - Conference League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Conference League 2025/2026 (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
