Sport Picks
Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar Prediction & H2H Stats
Europe
Conference League 2025/2026 Stadion Poznan, Poznań 
Match Events
27'
27'
Sub
Kryskiv D. In: Marlon Gomes
Out: Kryskiv D.
36'
36'
Marlon Gomes
Assist: Kaua Elias
37'
37'
Marlon Gomes
AI Match Summary
Shakhtar in this Conference League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
20%
52%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Shakhtar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Attack-wise there's a gap: Lech Poznan at 2.45 per game, Shakhtar at 2.07.
- Model gives Shakhtar a 52% chance of winning this.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Shakhtar, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Lech Poznan Clean Sheet 14%
Shakhtar Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lech Poznan | Shakhtar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 19 | 19 |
| Draws | 7 | 6 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 2.45 | 2.07 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 0.83 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 19, 2026 Conference League
Shakhtar vs Lech Poznan
1:2
Mar 12, 2026 Conference League
Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar
1:3
Jan 25, 2024 Club Friendly
Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar
1:3
Jan 21, 2021 Club Friendly
Shakhtar vs Lech Poznan
1:1
Jan 25, 2020 Club Friendly
Lech Poznan vs Shakhtar
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lech Poznan Compare
Top Goalscorer Ishak M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Shakhtar Compare
Top Goalscorer Marlon Gomes
1 Goals Assists Leader Newerton
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lech Poznan 10 / 100
Shakhtar 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lech Poznan Shakhtar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Shakhtar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lech Poznan found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).
Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.
Lech Poznan has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Defensive concern: Shakhtar conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Lech Poznan VS Shakhtar
2.63 Goals Scored 1.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Lech Poznan
(Home) 03 Oct
Lech Poznan
2 : 2 Energie Cottbus
20 Sept
Lech Poznan
5 : 1 Radomiak Radom
17 Sept
Crystal Palace
4 : 0 Lech Poznan
12 Sept
Gornik Zabrze
2 : 1 Lech Poznan
06 Sept
Lech Poznan
1 : 0 Rakow Czestochowa
Page 1 of 6
03 Oct
Lech Poznan
2 : 2 Energie Cottbus
20 Sept
Lech Poznan
5 : 1 Radomiak Radom
06 Sept
Lech Poznan
1 : 0 Rakow Czestochowa
03 Sept
Lech Poznan
2 : 1 Jagiellonia
20 Aug
Lech Poznan
7 : 0 Thun
Page 1 of 4
Shakhtar
(Away) 02 Oct
Shakhtar
3 : 0 Kryvbas
20 Sept
Shakhtar
3 : 0 LNZ Cherkasy
17 Sept
FC Vilkhivtsi
0 : 3 Shakhtar
14 Sept
Shakhtar
2 : 0 Ch. Odesa
10 Sept
PSV
1 : 1 Shakhtar
Page 1 of 6
17 Sept
FC Vilkhivtsi
0 : 3 Shakhtar
10 Sept
PSV
1 : 1 Shakhtar
05 Sept
Karpaty Lviv
1 : 2 Shakhtar
16 Aug
FC Kharkiv
0 : 1 Shakhtar
09 Aug
Epitsentr
0 : 2 Shakhtar
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
KuPS 0
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar -
TBD -
Noah 1
AZ Alkmaar 4
Sparta Prague -
TBD -
Zrinjski 1
Crystal Palace 3
AEK Larnaca -
TBD -
Jagiellonia 4
Fiorentina 5
Rakow Czestochowa -
TBD -
Shkendija Tetovo 0
Samsunspor 5
Rayo Vallecano -
TBD -
Drita 4
Celje 6
AEK -
TBD -
Sigma Olomouc 3
Lausanne 2
Mainz -
TBD -
Omonia 1
Rijeka 4
Strasbourg -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Lech Poznan 3
Shakhtar 4
AZ Alkmaar 6
Sparta Prague 1
Crystal Palace 2
AEK Larnaca 1
Fiorentina 4
Rakow Czestochowa 2
Samsunspor 2
Rayo Vallecano 3
Celje 2
AEK 4
Sigma Olomouc 0
Mainz 2
Rijeka 2
Strasbourg 3
Quarter-finals
Shakhtar 5
AZ Alkmaar 2
Crystal Palace 4
Fiorentina 2
Rayo Vallecano 4
AEK 3
Mainz 2
Strasbourg 4
Semi-finals
Shakhtar 2
Crystal Palace 5
Rayo Vallecano 2
Strasbourg 0
Final
Crystal Palace 1
Rayo Vallecano 0
