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Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

Division 1 Polsat Plus Arena, Gdansk
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
06:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lechia Gdansk host Arka Gdynia in the Division 1. This one's hard to separate. Lechia Gdansk have averaged 1.64 scored and 1.89 conceded recently, against Arka Gdynia's 1.38 scored and 1.59 conceded. Head-to-head, Lechia Gdansk have won 3 to Arka Gdynia's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 27, 2026, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 1.94 vs 1.19, favoring Lechia Gdansk. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Lechia Gdansk
15%
Draws
21%
Arka Gdynia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lechia Gdansk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lechia Gdansk lately — more wins on the board than Arka Gdynia.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Lechia Gdansk taking it.
  • Regular Division 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Lechia Gdansk Clean Sheet 20%
Arka Gdynia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lechia Gdansk Arka Gdynia
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 9
Draws 4 7
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.64 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.89 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 27, 2026 Ekstraklasa
Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk
2:2
Aug 24, 2025 Ekstraklasa
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
1:0
May 19, 2024 Division 1
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
2:1
Nov 24, 2023 Division 1
Arka Gdynia vs Lechia Gdansk
1:0
May 31, 2020 Ekstraklasa
Lechia Gdansk vs Arka Gdynia
4:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lechia Gdansk 85 / 100
Arka Gdynia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lechia Gdansk Arka Gdynia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lechia Gdansk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Lechia Gdansk scored in 75% of their last 28 games.

Defensive concern: Arka Gdynia conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Lechia Gdansk has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lechia Gdansk VS Arka Gdynia
2.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lechia Gdansk

(Home)
03 Oct
Ruch Chorzow
1 : 3
Lechia Gdansk
19 Sept
Lechia Gdansk
7 : 1
Stal Mielec
13 Sept
Lechia Gdansk
2 : 1
Legnica
04 Sept
Termalica Bruk-Bet
2 : 1
Lechia Gdansk
01 Sept
Kluczbork
1 : 2
Lechia Gdansk
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Arka Gdynia

(Away)
10 Oct
Arka Gdynia
1 : 2
Polonia Warszawa
03 Oct
Arka Gdynia
3 : 2
IFK Goteborg
20 Sept
Pogon Siedlce
2 : 1
Arka Gdynia
12 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 0
Arka Gdynia
06 Sept
Arka Gdynia
1 : 1
LKS Lodz
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 9 5 3 1 15:8 18
2 Termalica Bruk-Bet 9 5 1 3 14:12 16
3 Warta Poznan 9 5 0 4 17:13 15
4 LKS Lodz 9 4 3 2 13:9 15
5 Legnica 9 4 2 3 14:9 14
6 Polonia Warszawa 9 4 2 3 15:12 14
7 S. Rzeszow 9 4 2 3 10:15 14
8 Lechia Gdansk 9 4 1 4 17:15 13
9 Chrobry Glogow 9 3 3 3 11:8 12
10 Pogon Siedlce 9 3 3 3 9:8 12
11 Ruch Chorzow 9 3 3 3 9:11 12
12 Arka Gdynia 9 3 2 4 11:11 11
13 Podbeskidzie 10 1 8 1 13:14 11
14 Unia Skierniewice 9 3 1 5 10:15 10
15 Odra Opole 9 2 3 4 7:9 9
16 Polonia Bytom 9 1 6 2 14:17 9
17 Stal Mielec 9 2 3 4 14:23 9
18 Puszcza 8 2 0 6 8:12 6
Promotion - Ekstraklasa 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)