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Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po

Hong Kong Hong Kong

Premier League Tseung Kwan O Sports Ground
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lee Man Warriors play Tai Po in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Lee Man Warriors averaged 2.43 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Tai Po averaged 2.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. In past meetings, Lee Man Warriors won 2, Tai Po won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 17, 2026 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Lee Man Warriors and 1.69 for Tai Po. This points to a Tai Po double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Lee Man Warriors
18%
Draws
42%
Tai Po
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Tai Po

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Lee Man Warriors picked up more points recently compared to Tai Po.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 72%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Over 3.5 Goals 43%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Lee Man Warriors Clean Sheet 13%
Tai Po Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lee Man Warriors Tai Po
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 17 20
Draws 6 5
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 2.43 2.22
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.44
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
2:3
Mar 11, 2026 League Cup
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
1:0
Jan 17, 2026 Premier League
Tai Po vs Lee Man Warriors
3:5
Sep 27, 2025 Senior Shield
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
2:3
Aug 30, 2025 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lee Man Warriors Compare

Top Goalscorer Camargo E.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Tai Po Compare

Top Goalscorer Chung Wai-Keung
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lee Man Warriors 39 / 100
Tai Po 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lee Man Warriors Tai Po

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Tai Po or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.4%
1.52
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lee Man Warriors attacking → ← attacking Tai Po

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lee Man Warriors scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Tai Po let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 4.60 goals.

Lee Man Warriors went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Tai Po lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

57 Points in last 5 65
2.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.25
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Kitchee22164254:2852
2Tai Po22134549:3243
3Lee Man Warriors22126457:2642
4Eastern AA2295839:3732
5North District2288643:3932