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Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Hong Kong Hong Kong

League Cup
Sun, Nov 15, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 1-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Lee Man Warriors at 2.41 goals for, 1.14 against; Tai Po at 2.03 for, 1.7 against. Past meetings favor Lee Man Warriors slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 17, 2026, ending 2:3. The numbers (1.69 xG vs 1.50) point toward Lee Man Warriors. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Lee Man Warriors
15%
Draws
28%
Tai Po
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lee Man Warriors

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Tai Po carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 57% — that's where the model lands on Lee Man Warriors taking it.
  • Tai Po arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Tai Po, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Lee Man Warriors Clean Sheet 16%
Tai Po Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lee Man Warriors Tai Po
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 19 20
Draws 5 1
Losses 5 12
Goals Scored 2.41 2.03
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
2:3
Mar 11, 2026 League Cup
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
1:0
Jan 17, 2026 Premier League
Tai Po vs Lee Man Warriors
3:5
Sep 27, 2025 Senior Shield
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
2:3
Aug 30, 2025 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Tai Po
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lee Man Warriors 57 / 100
Tai Po 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lee Man Warriors Tai Po

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lee Man Warriors Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lee Man Warriors scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Tai Po's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 33 matches.

H2H data points to 4.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Lee Man Warriors stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lee Man Warriors VS Tai Po
1.75 Goals Scored 2
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lee Man Warriors

(Home)
07 Nov
Lee Man Warriors
1 : 0
Southern District
25 Oct
Hong Kong Rangers
2 : 4
Lee Man Warriors
19 Oct
Lee Man Warriors
1 : 5
Kitchee
11 Oct
Hong Kong Rangers
0 : 2
Lee Man Warriors
19 Sept
Shatin
0 : 1
Lee Man Warriors
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Tai Po

(Away)
05 Nov
Pathum United
4 : 1
Tai Po
29 Oct
Tai Po
0 : 3
Pathum United
24 Oct
Tai Po
4 : 2
Kitchee
19 Oct
Tai Po
4 : 2
Southern District
15 Oct
Tai Po
0 : 1
Lion City Sailors
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Lee Man Warriors -
TBD -
Hong Kong Rangers 1
Tai Po 3
Kowloon City 1
Eastern District 2
Eastern AA 3
Kitchee 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
North District 2
Southern District 1
Shatin 2
Hong Kong FC 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
1/8-finals
Lee Man Warriors -
Tai Po -
Eastern District -
Eastern AA -
TBD -
TBD -
North District -
Hong Kong FC -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -