Sport Picks

England

Premier League 2025/2026 Elland Road

Leeds

3 - 1

Burnley

Our Tip

Match Events

Stach A.

Assist: Bijol J.

27'

Struijk P.

35'

Humphreys B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Leeds in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leeds.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%

Leeds

33%

Draws

27%

Burnley

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Leeds

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to Leeds lately — more wins on the board than Burnley.
40% — that's where the model lands on Leeds taking it.
Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%

Leeds Clean Sheet 20%

Burnley Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Leeds	Burnley
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	12	2
Draws	12	10
Losses	6	17
Goals Scored	1.75	0.75
Goals Conceded	1	2.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 1, 2026 Premier League

Leeds vs Burnley

Possession: 51% - 55% Cards: 1 - 1

3:1

Oct 18, 2025 Premier League

Burnley vs Leeds

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 4 - 3

2:0

Jan 27, 2025 Championship

Burnley vs Leeds

Possession: 50% - 52% Cards: 1 - 1

0:0

Sep 14, 2024 Championship

Leeds vs Burnley

Possession: 50% - 40% Cards: 3 - 3

0:1

Jan 2, 2022 Premier League

Leeds vs Burnley

Possession: 50% - 47% Cards: 4 - 3

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leeds Compare

Top Goalscorer Stach A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Okafor N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Burnley Compare

Top Goalscorer Tchaouna L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leeds 40 / 100

Burnley 26 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Leeds Burnley

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEE Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Burnley conceded in 93% of 29 recent games.

Leeds's goal record stands at 73% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Leeds remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Leeds VS Burnley

1.75 Goals Scored 0.75

1 Goals Conceded 2.13

75% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 50%

38% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Arsenal	38	26	7	5	71:27	85
2	Manchester City	38	23	9	6	77:35	78
3	Manchester United	38	20	11	7	69:50	71
4	Aston Villa	38	19	8	11	56:49	65
5	Liverpool	38	17	9	12	63:53	60
6	Bournemouth	38	13	18	7	58:54	57
7	Sunderland	38	14	12	12	42:48	54
8	Brighton	38	14	11	13	52:46	53
9	Brentford	38	14	11	13	55:52	53
10	Chelsea	38	14	10	14	58:52	52
11	Fulham	38	15	7	16	47:51	52
12	Newcastle Utd	38	14	7	17	53:55	49
13	Everton	38	13	10	15	47:50	49
14	Leeds	38	11	14	13	49:56	47
15	Crystal Palace	38	11	12	15	41:51	45
16	Nottingham	38	11	11	16	48:51	44
17	Tottenham	38	10	11	17	48:57	41
18	West Ham	38	10	9	19	46:65	39
19	Burnley	38	4	10	24	38:75	22
20	Wolves	38	3	11	24	27:68	20