Sport Picks
Match Events
22'
22'
Weir L.
30'
30'
Dwyer A.
64'
64'
Griffiths J.
AI Match Summary
The NPL Premier Division game between Leek Town and Ilkeston finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Leek Town.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
43%
15%
42%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leek Town
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Leek Town come out ahead of Ilkeston on wins alone.
- Model gives Leek Town a 36% chance of winning this.
- Regular NPL Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Leek Town Clean Sheet 16%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Leek Town | Ilkeston |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 12 | 8 |
| Draws | 8 | 4 |
| Losses | 9 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.97 | 0.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.62 | 1.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.13 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 7, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Ilkeston
3:2
Jan 31, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Leek Town
1:3
Sep 20, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Ilkeston
1:2
Jan 4, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Leek Town
0:2
Sep 21, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Ilkeston
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Leek Town Compare
Top Goalscorer Weir L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Griffiths J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06
Ilkeston Compare
Top Goalscorer Dwyer A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Newell S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Leek Town 36 / 100
Ilkeston 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Leek Town Ilkeston
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Leek Town scored in 100% of their last 29 outings.
Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.
Defensive concern: Ilkeston conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.
Away concern: Ilkeston has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Leek Town VS Ilkeston
2.25 Goals Scored 0.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Leek Town
(Home) 07 Nov
Leek Town
3 : 2 Ilkeston
03 Nov
Guiseley
4 : 1 Leek Town
31 Oct
Curzon Ashton
2 : 1 Leek Town
27 Oct
Bury FC
5 : 3 Leek Town
24 Oct
Leek Town
4 : 1 Bootle
Page 1 of 6
07 Nov
Leek Town
3 : 2 Ilkeston
24 Oct
Leek Town
4 : 1 Bootle
10 Oct
Leek Town
2 : 2 Ashton United
06 Oct
Leek Town
3 : 3 Warrington Rylands
22 Sept
Leek Town
2 : 1 Hyde
Page 1 of 3
Ilkeston
(Away) 10 Nov
Curzon Ashton
1 : 0 Ilkeston
07 Nov
Leek Town
3 : 2 Ilkeston
31 Oct
Ilkeston
1 : 0 Hyde
17 Oct
Ilkeston
2 : 0 Avro
13 Oct
Gainsborough
3 : 1 Ilkeston
Page 1 of 6
10 Nov
Curzon Ashton
1 : 0 Ilkeston
07 Nov
Leek Town
3 : 2 Ilkeston
13 Oct
Gainsborough
3 : 1 Ilkeston
03 Oct
Lancaster
2 : 1 Ilkeston
12 Sept
Workington
3 : 1 Ilkeston
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 41:19 | 38 |
| 2 | Curzon Ashton | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 32:18 | 37 |
| 3 | Cleethorpes | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34:10 | 36 |
| 4 | Guiseley | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 34:16 | 33 |
| 5 | Avro | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 42:34 | 32 |
| 6 | Warrington Rylands | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 31:24 | 30 |
| 7 | Workington | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 31:27 | 30 |
| 8 | Bury FC | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 32:18 | 29 |
| 9 | Gainsborough | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 33:24 | 29 |
| 10 | Warrington Town | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 31:24 | 29 |
| 11 | Alfreton | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 23:25 | 23 |
| 12 | AFC Emley | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 21:29 | 23 |
| 13 | Quorn | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 33:35 | 21 |
| 14 | Lancaster | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 20:31 | 21 |
| 15 | Whitby | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 24:47 | 19 |
| 16 | Stockton | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 26:31 | 18 |
| 17 | Hyde | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19:32 | 18 |
| 18 | Ashton United | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 19:21 | 17 |
| 19 | Leek Town | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 34:39 | 17 |
| 20 | Ilkeston | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 13:38 | 13 |
| 21 | United of Manchester | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 20:27 | 12 |
| 22 | Bamber Bridge | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 18:42 | 11 |
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)
