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Legion vs Tartu Kalev

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga B
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Kulm R.
75' Event
Villems M.
80' Event
Andreas P.

AI Match Summary

Tartu Kalev in this Esiliiga B matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tartu Kalev.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Legion
20%
Draws
70%
Tartu Kalev
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tartu Kalev

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Tartu Kalev have won more games recently than Legion.
  • Model gives Tartu Kalev a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Esiliiga B form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Tartu Kalev have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Legion Clean Sheet 10%
Tartu Kalev Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Legion Tartu Kalev
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 4 15
Draws 3 2
Losses 23 12
Goals Scored 1.2 2.55
Goals Conceded 3.6 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 10, 2026 Esiliiga B
Legion vs Tartu Kalev
1:2
Jul 12, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Legion
10:2
May 24, 2026 Esiliiga B
Legion vs Tartu Kalev
0:6
Apr 11, 2026 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Legion
1:0
Nov 1, 2025 Esiliiga B
Tartu Kalev vs Legion
4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Legion Compare

Top Goalscorer Andreas P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Tartu Kalev Compare

Top Goalscorer Kulm R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Villems M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Legion 10 / 100
Tartu Kalev 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Legion Tartu Kalev

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tartu Kalev Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.80 goals as a typical output.

Tartu Kalev's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

Legion's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Solid form: Legion remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Legion VS Tartu Kalev
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
2.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Legion

(Home)
18 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
12 : 0
Legion
14 Sept
Tabasalu
1 : 1
Legion
10 Sept
Legion
1 : 2
Tartu Kalev
05 Sept
Tulevik
3 : 0
Legion
30 Aug
Legion
1 : 5
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
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Tartu Kalev

(Away)
13 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus U21
0 : 4
Tartu Kalev
10 Sept
Legion
1 : 2
Tartu Kalev
06 Sept
Tartu Kalev
0 : 1
Narva U21
29 Aug
Tartu Kalev
0 : 3
Johvi Phoenix
25 Aug
Tartu Kalev
1 : 1
Tallinna Kalev U21
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Narva U21 29 19 3 7 69:35 60
2 Levadia U19 30 18 2 10 75:52 56
3 Johvi Phoenix 30 17 3 10 71:68 54
4 Tammeka Tartu U21 30 15 4 11 74:60 49
5 Tartu Kalev 29 15 2 12 71:52 47
6 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 30 14 4 12 95:62 46
7 Tulevik 29 13 5 11 74:60 44
8 Tabasalu 30 10 3 17 44:81 33
9 Tallinna Kalev U21 30 7 5 18 60:77 26
10 Legion 29 3 3 23 25:111 12
Promotion - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B (Relegation)