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Leioa vs Derio

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Leioa Logo

Leioa

0 - 0
FT
Derio Logo

Derio

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Leioa
15%
Draws
21%
Derio
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leioa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

21% / Low Confidence
  • Leioa have won more games recently than Derio.
  • Model gives Derio a 21% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Leioa Clean Sheet 21%
Derio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leioa Derio
Matches Played 35 32
Wins 20 15
Draws 7 6
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.49 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.22
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Derio
1:0
May 31, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs Leioa
0:1
Apr 12, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Derio
0:0
Dec 7, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Derio vs Leioa
1:0
Mar 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Derio
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leioa 24 / 100
Derio 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leioa Derio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leioa's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Defensive concern: Derio conceded in 75% of 32 recent games.

Leioa has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Derio lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leioa VS Derio
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Leioa

(Home)
18 Jul
Leioa
0 : 11
Ath Bilbao
21 Jun
Albacete B
2 : 0
Leioa
13 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Albacete B
06 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Derio
31 May
Derio
0 : 1
Leioa
Page 1 of 7

Derio

(Away)
15 Jul
Derio
0 : 3
Ath Bilbao
06 Jun
Leioa
1 : 0
Derio
31 May
Derio
0 : 1
Leioa
24 May
Derio
2 : 0
Lagun Onak
17 May
Lagun Onak
2 : 0
Derio
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)