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Leioa vs Eibar C Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Izaola I.
44' Event
Etxebarria E.
67' Event
Etxebarria E.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Leioa in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leioa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Leioa
35%
Draws
37%
Eibar C
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Eibar C

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Eibar C haven't matched Leioa's recent run of results.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Eibar C taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Leioa here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Leioa Clean Sheet 11%
Eibar C Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leioa Eibar C
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 15 8
Draws 11 10
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.35 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Eibar C
2:1
Mar 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Eibar C
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Eibar C vs Leioa
0:1
May 10, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Eibar C vs Leioa
2:5
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Eibar C
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leioa Compare

Top Goalscorer Etxebarria E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Eibar C Compare

Top Goalscorer Izaola I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leioa 18 / 100
Eibar C 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leioa Eibar C

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Eibar C Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Eibar C's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Leioa scored in 79% of their last 34 outings.

Leioa has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Leioa VS Eibar C
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 83%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Leioa

(Home)
26 Sept
Leioa
2 : 1
Eibar C
20 Sept
Real Union B
3 : 3
Leioa
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1
Pasaia
09 Sept
Bergantinos
5 : 0
Leioa
05 Sept
Lagun Onak
1 : 1
Leioa
Page 1 of 7

Eibar C

(Away)
26 Sept
Leioa
2 : 1
Eibar C
19 Sept
Eibar C
3 : 1
SD Erandio
13 Sept
Sodupe
1 : 1
Eibar C
05 Sept
Eibar C
1 : 1
Alaves C
14 Aug
Eibar C
3 : 1
Santurtzi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Derio 5 3 2 0 7:2 11
3 Pasaia 5 3 1 1 7:6 10
4 Leioa 5 2 3 0 12:6 9
5 Real Sociedad C 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
6 Touring KE 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
7 UD Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
8 Alaves C 5 2 1 2 11:6 7
9 Lagun Onak 5 2 1 2 4:5 7
10 SCD Durango 5 1 3 1 8:8 6
11 SD Erandio 5 2 0 3 6:6 6
12 San Ignacio 5 1 2 2 8:7 5
13 Eibar C 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
14 Real Union B 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
15 Sodupe 5 1 2 2 4:9 5
16 Beasain 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
17 Santurtzi 5 1 0 4 2:7 3
18 Amurrio Club 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)