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Leioa vs Pasaia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Etxebarria E.
65' Event
Goni H.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 game between Leioa and Pasaia finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Leioa
30%
Draws
39%
Pasaia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pasaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Leioa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Leioa are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Leioa Clean Sheet 13%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Leioa Pasaia
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 8
Draws 9 8
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.57 1
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.21 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Pasaia
1:1
Jan 17, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Leioa
1:3
Sep 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Pasaia
0:1
Mar 1, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Leioa
1:1
Oct 19, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Leioa vs Pasaia
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Leioa Compare

Top Goalscorer Etxebarria E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.93
Avg xA / game 0.6

Pasaia Compare

Top Goalscorer Goni H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Leioa 40 / 100
Pasaia 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Leioa Pasaia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Leioa's goal record stands at 87% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Pasaia has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Leioa went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Leioa VS Pasaia
1 Goals Scored 1.14
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.43
63% Over 1.5 71%
25% Over 2.5 43%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Leioa

(Home)
04 Oct
Amurrio Club
0 : 5
Leioa
26 Sept
Leioa
2 : 1
Eibar C
20 Sept
Real Union B
3 : 3
Leioa
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1
Pasaia
09 Sept
Bergantinos
5 : 0
Leioa
Page 1 of 6

Pasaia

(Away)
03 Oct
Pasaia
1 : 0
Santurtzi
27 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 2
Pasaia
19 Sept
Pasaia
3 : 2
Real Sociedad C
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1
Pasaia
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2
SD Erandio
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Derio 5 3 2 0 7:2 11
3 Pasaia 5 3 1 1 7:6 10
4 Leioa 5 2 3 0 12:6 9
5 Real Sociedad C 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
6 Touring KE 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
7 UD Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
8 Alaves C 5 2 1 2 11:6 7
9 Lagun Onak 5 2 1 2 4:5 7
10 SCD Durango 5 1 3 1 8:8 6
11 SD Erandio 5 2 0 3 6:6 6
12 San Ignacio 5 1 2 2 8:7 5
13 Eibar C 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
14 Real Union B 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
15 Sodupe 5 1 2 2 4:9 5
16 Beasain 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
17 Santurtzi 5 1 0 4 2:7 3
18 Amurrio Club 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)